http://github.com/dylang/node-rssRSS for NodeThu, 23 Apr 2026 20:57:15 GMTThe US-Iranian talks in Pakistan failed to produce a substantive agreement on the most contentious issues, despite being characterized as "serious" and involving top officials from both sides. Some progress was achieved on specific points, but Pakistani mediation continues during the remaining days of the ceasefire, with exchanges of letters and delegations aimed at easing the crisis.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/dialogue-on-shaky-ground-islamabad-talks-and-the-potential-for-a-us-iran-settlementhttps:/epc.ae/details/scenario/dialogue-on-shaky-ground-islamabad-talks-and-the-potential-for-a-us-iran-settlementThu, 16 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTIraqi militias have become deeply embroiled in Iran’s regional escalation, expanding missile and drone attacks while moving toward establishing a direct security presence in city centers and strategic sites. They have also threatened cross-border ground operations or strikes against the Kurdistan Region if Iran faces land-based operations.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/iraqi-militias-and-the-iranian-war-consolidating-domestic-dominance-and-integration-into-tehran-s-regional-strategyhttps:/epc.ae/details/scenario/iraqi-militias-and-the-iranian-war-consolidating-domestic-dominance-and-integration-into-tehran-s-regional-strategyWed, 08 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTDamascus continues to adopt a position of “neutrality” in the ongoing war in the region, resisting pressure to confront Hezbollah directly. Its actions remain limited to defensive measures such as reinforcing its borders with Lebanon and Iraq. However, some within the Syrian leadership advocate exploiting the current situation by taking military action in the Bekaa Valley – either during or after the war – to mitigate potential fallout, though such a move might not carry guaranteed gains.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/syria-and-the-war-in-lebanon-will-the-sharaa-government-act-against-hezbollah-https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/syria-and-the-war-in-lebanon-will-the-sharaa-government-act-against-hezbollah-Mon, 06 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTThis war will not end as it began. It is not merely redistributing power – it is redefining the rules that govern it. In the Middle East, major wars are not transient episodes of escalation; they are foundational moments that reshape the structure of the regional order and the principles underpinning it. The ongoing war with Iran is one such moment. At stake is not only the balance of military power, but the very nature of the system that will define the region in the years ahead: whether it will remain a hybrid order shared between states and transnational armed networks, or shift toward the re-centralization of the state as the decisive actor.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/how-the-confrontation-with-iran-is-redefining-power-and-the-regional-orderhttps:/epc.ae/details/scenario/how-the-confrontation-with-iran-is-redefining-power-and-the-regional-orderFri, 03 Apr 2026 14:47:03 GMTHezbollah's participation in the conflict with Israel and its decision to open a front in Lebanon are driven by its ideological alignment with Iran and the influence of the Revolutionary Guards. It is highly unlikely that Hezbollah will be the party to initiate an end to the current hostilities.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/from-pressure-to-invasion-will-lebanese-hezbollah-wage-its-last-war-with-israel-https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/from-pressure-to-invasion-will-lebanese-hezbollah-wage-its-last-war-with-israel-Mon, 30 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe lack of public appearances by the new Iranian leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has fueled speculation about his health. His absence from both visual and audio media has created uncertainty across the Iranian political landscape. While it is confirmed that he was injured during an Israeli raid at the start of the war, the extent of his injuries remains unclear.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/potential-explanations-for-mojtaba-khamenei-s-absence-and-its-impact-on-the-iranian-political-landscapehttps:/epc.ae/details/scenario/potential-explanations-for-mojtaba-khamenei-s-absence-and-its-impact-on-the-iranian-political-landscapeThu, 26 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe killing of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, a prominent political figure linked to the former Libyan regime, marks a highly contentious and destabilizing event in post-2011 Libya. Occurring shortly after the death of Mohammed al-Haddad, Chief of Staff of Western Libya, and amid rumors surrounding the fate of Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, this assassination suggests Libya is entering a turbulent phase marked by intense negotiations as rival factions compete to reshape the country's political landscape. 

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/outlook-on-the-libyan-political-landscape-following-the-killing-of-saif-al-islam-gaddafi-progress-or-impediment-https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/outlook-on-the-libyan-political-landscape-following-the-killing-of-saif-al-islam-gaddafi-progress-or-impediment-Mon, 23 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe closure of one of the world’s most critical energy corridors places the international economic system under an unprecedented test. In a global economy that increasingly depends on stable flows of energy and maritime trade, strategic straits have become foundational elements of economic security.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/the-strait-of-hormuz-geography-at-the-core-of-global-economic-securityhttps:/epc.ae/details/scenario/the-strait-of-hormuz-geography-at-the-core-of-global-economic-securityWed, 18 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical maritime passages, with around 20-21 million barrels of oil flowing through it every day under normal circumstances, representing roughly one-fifth of global energy consumption. It also carries a substantial share of the world's liquefied natural gas trade. Its strategic significance lies not only in the sheer volume of traffic, but also in the absence of viable alternatives to offset sudden disruption in navigation.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/disruption-without-closure-can-iran-still-threaten-navigation-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-despite-declining-naval-capabilities-https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/disruption-without-closure-can-iran-still-threaten-navigation-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-despite-declining-naval-capabilities-Wed, 18 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMTThere are growing indications that the US administration is seeking to exploit minority issues in Iran to increase pressure on the regime to comply with Washington’s demands. This plan appears to be gaining traction through actions on the ground, including a phone call between President Trump and Iranian Kurdish leaders, as well as US intelligence outreach to Kurdish figures inside Iran.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/a-risky-game-repercussions-and-scenarios-of-mobilizing-armed-kurdish-groups-in-iranhttps:/epc.ae/details/scenario/a-risky-game-repercussions-and-scenarios-of-mobilizing-armed-kurdish-groups-in-iranWed, 18 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the third Supreme Leader of the Iranian regime, following in his father's footsteps, resolved a contentious issue that had been close to triggering significant internal rifts. Mojtaba secured 50 votes in the Assembly of Experts, indicating a somewhat tenuous majority, but it was sufficient to secure his ascension to Iran's highest position.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/mojtaba-khamenei-the-newly-appointed-leader-of-iran-implications-of-his-appointment-and-potential-scenarioshttps:/epc.ae/details/scenario/mojtaba-khamenei-the-newly-appointed-leader-of-iran-implications-of-his-appointment-and-potential-scenariosMon, 16 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMTIsrael's objective in the extensive military operation against Iran is to pave the way for the regime's internal overthrow by targeting political and military leaders, dismantling security structures and eliminating Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/the-israeli-american-war-on-iran-objectives-and-potential-scenarioshttps:/epc.ae/details/scenario/the-israeli-american-war-on-iran-objectives-and-potential-scenariosMon, 09 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is expected to create a significant political and leadership vacuum within the Iranian regime. However, official sources in Tehran insist that his absence would not affect the political system and that the ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel would continue.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/iran-after-khamenei-potential-transitional-scenarios-in-the-context-of-conflicthttps:/epc.ae/details/scenario/iran-after-khamenei-potential-transitional-scenarios-in-the-context-of-conflictThu, 05 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe Iranian Revolutionary Guard recently announced a naval drill titled "Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz" following the postponement of joint maneuvers with Russia and China last month due to regional tensions. This indicates that Tehran continues to regard the strait as a strategic asset in its ongoing confrontation with the United States.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/iran-and-the-closure-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-strategic-deterrence-and-its-challengeshttps:/epc.ae/details/scenario/iran-and-the-closure-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-strategic-deterrence-and-its-challengesFri, 27 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe comprehensive agreement reached between Damascus and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on January 30, 2026 marked a partial setback for Turkiye compared to the January 18 agreement. Nevertheless, the comprehensive agreement did secure a significant gain for Ankara by ensuring that Hasakah and Kobani would not have official or recognized self-administration, even while acknowledging their Kurdish identity. 

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/turkiye-and-the-agreement-between-damascus-and-the-sdf-a-partial-victoryhttps:/epc.ae/details/scenario/turkiye-and-the-agreement-between-damascus-and-the-sdf-a-partial-victoryFri, 20 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMTIran has pushed for the appointment of Nouri al-Maliki as head of the new Iraqi government in an effort to enhance its bargaining position with the United States. However, this nomination was openly rejected by the US, as stated by President Donald Trump.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/a-crucial-test-iraq-us-ties-at-a-crossroads-with-maliki-s-nomination-as-prime-ministerhttps:/epc.ae/details/scenario/a-crucial-test-iraq-us-ties-at-a-crossroads-with-maliki-s-nomination-as-prime-ministerMon, 16 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe likelihood of US President Donald Trump either attacking Iran or the two sides reaching a resolution remains evenly balanced. Lebanese Hezbollah finds itself at a critical juncture: while it has declared that it will not remain passive in the event of an attack, it is currently the most vulnerable component of the Iranian axis due to the blockades imposed by Syria, Israel and the Lebanese government.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/difficult-choices-and-intricate-calculations-how-will-lebanese-hezbollah-navigate-a-potential-us-strike-on-iran-https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/difficult-choices-and-intricate-calculations-how-will-lebanese-hezbollah-navigate-a-potential-us-strike-on-iran-Tue, 10 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe United States is deploying a significant portion of its naval and air assets in areas surrounding the Middle East to address the Iranian situation. This move follows President Donald Trump's pledge to back ongoing protests in Iran and the subsequent crackdown by Iranian authorities, which has resulted in significant casualties among both protesters and security forces.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/possible-military-action-and-varying-levels-of-targeting-consequences-of-a-potential-us-attack-on-iranhttps:/epc.ae/details/scenario/possible-military-action-and-varying-levels-of-targeting-consequences-of-a-potential-us-attack-on-iranTue, 03 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe protests that swept Iran at the end of December and the beginning of January drew significant attention in Israel, where many observers interpreted them as a sign of the regime's impending collapse. Within Israeli political and media circles, a debate has emerged over how the country should respond.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/israeli-policy-toward-protests-in-iran-divergent-approaches-and-possible-scenarioshttps:/epc.ae/details/scenario/israeli-policy-toward-protests-in-iran-divergent-approaches-and-possible-scenariosFri, 23 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe Arab community in Israel is preparing for the upcoming Knesset elections scheduled for October 2026. A movement is underway to form a unified Arab list, though discussions continue about the possibility of having two separate lists. This debate has been shaped by Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List, who has expressed interest in joining the next government coalition. Abbas has also taken steps to separate the United Arab List from the Southern Islamic Movement, seeking to establish it as an independent Arab political party not bound by the decisions of the Islamic Movement’s Shura Council.

]]>https:/epc.ae/details/scenario/a-historic-political-bet-arabs-in-israel-and-the-upcoming-knesset-electionshttps:/epc.ae/details/scenario/a-historic-political-bet-arabs-in-israel-and-the-upcoming-knesset-electionsTue, 06 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT