For the first time since their intervention in Syria, the Russian forces have reached the Iraqi borders at the Albu Kamal crossing in December 2020. This area is considered to be purely under Iranian influence since control over it was regained from the Daesh (Islamic State, ISIS) organisation in 2018. There are indications of an unannounced Russian-Iranian agreement, many of whose details are unclear. This raises questions about the considerations that prompted the two countries to conclude this agreement, and whether it constitutes a prelude to changing the conditions of the players in the Syrian-Iraqi border area.
This paper sheds light on the current developments in the region of West Euphrates and explores the potential prospects for them.
Forces of the Fifth Corps, the Palestinian al-Quds Brigade and the Republican Guards, accompanied by a number of Russian officers and protection groups belonging to the Russian Military Police, were deployed in the Albu Kamal area near the Syrian-Iraqi border in the second week of December 2020. This deployment is believed to be a prelude to wider deployment operations in those areas. The Russian forces established a military headquarters in an Albu Kamal hotel with the aim of converting it into a command centre. They also set up military checkpoints at the villages near Albu Kamal, especially at the oil fields in the area.
The Russian deployment is being carried out on the pretext of fighting the Daesh organisation, whose activity has increased recently. Therefore, new forces are expected to be brought in from Aleppo, Hama and southern Syria. The elements and groups of the “reconciliation factions” will be actively participating in the deployment operations in the Deir Ezzor Governorate.
On the other hand, the militias of the Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah (Battalions of the Party of God), Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba (Movement of the Party of God’s Nobles), Harakat al-Abdal (the Replacements Movement) and the Liwa Fatemiyoun (Fatimid Brigade) withdrew from those areas. According to Syrian sources, part of those militias entered Iraqi territories from the al-Qaim side. The Iranian-affiliated militias had expelled the Russian-backed al-Quds Brigade from the Albu Kamal area in early 2021.
The city of Albu Kamal is of great importance and serves as a bridge for Iran, considering that it houses the only land crossing between Syria and Iraq, after the Syrian Democratic Forces (QSD, SDF) took control of the al-Yaroubia border crossing with Iraq as well, and the US controlled the al-Tanf crossing in Deir Ezzor. Al-Bukamal constitutes an important land transport node, as it is considered an extension of the Iraqi Anbar desert, and is also linked to the desert of Suwayda, Daraa, Tadmur and Deir Ezzor.
The Deir Ezzor Governorate is witnessing a sharing of influence between Iran and Russia, given that the Russian influence is concentrated in areas rich in phosphate and oil, especially in the southern desert of Deir Ezzor. Russia also has air control in the region. On the other hand, Iranian militias have control of the western and eastern neighbourhoods of the city of Deir Ezzor, and absolute control over part of the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor, south of the Euphrates River, extending from the city of Mayadin in the west to the city of Albu Kamal on the Syrian-Iraqi border in the east, with a length of more than 50 kilometres.
According to information reported by local news networks, the Russian deployment and the Iranian withdrawal from Albu Kamal came in the wake of a closed meeting that was held between Russian officers, a number of leaders of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Syrian regime officers, in the vicinity of Albu Kamal. On the other hand, US sources reported that the deployment of the Russian-backed forces took place as a result of an agreement with the Iranian militias.
Russian goals and interests
The new Russian move in Deir Ezzor Governorate, west of the Euphrates, reflects a set of interests and goals, as follows:
Iranian goals and interests
The Russian-Iranian agreement in Albu Kamal appears also to express Iranian interests and goals, the most important of which are the following:
What reassures Iran about the safety of its position in Syria are two factors:
The first is Iran's awareness that its influence in Syria is too deep that it would not be affected by influence-sharing with the forces supported by Russia in the Syrian border areas with Iraq. Furthermore, Iran would not concede to Russia the supply route of its militias in Syria, which is not required by Russia at this stage.
The second is Iran's awareness of the need by the Russian forces to support their militias in their continuing wars in Syria on more than one front, given that Iran has more forces than Russia that would have to mobilise the forces that have its support in the next stage in the process of clearing the Badia (Desert) from Daesh, at the expense of other fronts in Idlib and the east of the Euphrates, and would then be in need of the assistance provided by the Iranian militias.
The war against Daesh constituted the front for Russian action in the areas west of the Euphrates and changing the situation of control in that region. Daesh has come to constitute an explicit threat to Russia’s interests in the Badia, especially its investments in the field of oil and phosphate. However, this move also comes in the context of a broader plan that is implemented by Russia in Syria, aiming mainly to maximise its cards in the face of the next US administration, and to bring about a change in the positions of regional and international players by presenting a different picture of the situation in Syria and proving that things are moving in the direction of besieging and curtailing Iranian influence, especially in its most critical position, namely the Albu Kamal crossing which is the gateway for Iranian weapons and militias to Syria and Lebanon.
The military presence in the areas west of the Euphrates gives Russia important strategic advantages, mainly by weakening the US influence in Syria through its proximity to the Tanf base, and its contact with the clans of the Euphrates regions which complain about US support for the Kurdish Autonomous Administration and the marginalisation of the Arabs. This plan corresponds with Iran’s desire to reduce the intensity of strikes against its militias in Albu Kamal and all areas west of the Euphrates, allowing Iran to appear as the party helping to restore the authority of the Syrian state over the border areas, which is a card that can be used in negotiations with the new US administration.
Those changes are unlikely to affect the conditions of the actors in the eastern regions, given that Russia is not expected to seize the border crossing to the point where Iran is prevented from transferring weapons and personnel to its militias that continue to deploy heavily in various Syrian regions. In such cases, the crossing is usually divided into two lines, one for the purpose of trade where Iran may accept a Russian partnership in its management, and a military line whose administration would be purely Iranian.
On the other hand, it would be difficult for Russia to give up the services of the Iranian militias, especially in the Syrian Badia, where it does not have sufficient numbers of either Wagner mercenaries or of the militias that are allied to it. At the same time, Russia does not wish to sink in the quagmire of the Badia, and its air campaign against Daesh, despite its intensity for more than three months, has not achieved significant results. In addition, Russia will not reap the expected political returns from entering the areas west of the Euphrates, nor will it be able to convince the US and Israel of its ability to control Iranian movement in that region, as long as Iran's militias are present in huge bases, such as the Imam Ali base.
This consensus will remain largely provisional, being governed by external circumstances. Indeed, a proxy conflict between the two sides is expected to break out after some time, as was the case between them in southern Syria.
 Khaled al-Khateeb, “Russia fights Iran in its Syrian backyard”, Al-Modon website, 16 December 2020.
 “A source to al-Bawaba: Iranian forces withdraw from the Albu Kamal crossing, fleeing Daesh and Israeli raids”, Al-Bawaba, 17 December 2020.
 “Deir Ezzor: power struggle or interest-sharing between Russia and Iran”, Al-Modon website, 31 December 2020.
 “Russian officers meet with leaders of the ‘Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ in Deir Ezzor”, Jesr Press newspaper,
 Diaa Audi, “Russia sets its foot in the ‘Iranian Corridor’ in Syria”, Al-Hurra website, 18 December 2020.
 “Russian forces in the depth of Iranian influence: a conflict, an agreement, or messages? and to whom?”, Kurdish Hawar News Agency, 29 December 2020.
 Yahya al-Haj Nasaan, “Withdrawal or a manoeuvre: a special photo by Orient shows a new Russian move in Deir Ezzor”, Orient News Net, 23 December 2020.
 Khaled al-Khateeb , “The ‘Fatemiyoun’ Brigade did not withdraw from Syria, and its numbers are on the increase”, Al-Modon website, 27 December 2020.
 Raghida Dergham, “Russian offers of Syrian-Israeli-Iranian understandings”, Annahar al-Arabi, 20 December 2020.
 “Russia fights Iran in its Syrian backyard”, op. cit.
 Khaled al-Khateeb, “Deir Ezzor: Russian expansion is racing against Iran over the clans”, Al-Modon website, 24 December 2020.
 Raid al-Mostafa, “A Russian-US race towards the Syrian-Iraqi borders: a new era in which Iran is the loser”, Orient News Net, 25 December 2020.
 Abdullah Raja, “Iran and Russia: areas of clash and accord in Syria”, al-Bayan newspaper, 22 December 2020.
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