In November 2020, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sacked his son-in-law, Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, in a humiliating manner that led to a political crisis within the ruling party and Erdogan's loss of his right arm therein. Erdogan offered his son-in-law as a scapegoat, declaring the failure of his economic policies. This matter will have negative repercussions for the cohesion of the ruling party after the process of liquidating the figures affiliated with Erdogan's son-in-law, and will lead to an increase in the influence of the nationalists within the party and in the government institutions.
The Turkish economy continues to suffer from its crisis which has deepened in 2020. November 2020 began with a rapid deterioration in the price of the Turkish lira due to the decision by the Central Bank (TCMB) to keep the interest rate unchanged during October 2020, until the price of the lira reached 8.58 liras to the dollar. Despite the slight improvement in Turkey's economy at this stage, the return of the lockdown measures due to the coronavirus pandemic that prevent discipline in financial spending threatens the return of the climate of acute crisis in the country.
The Turkish economy was hit by a major crisis in March 2018 and was only able to get out of it relatively at the end of 2019 after painful financial measures were taken through raising the bank interest rate and narrowing access of foreign investors and speculators to the Turkish lira, and thanks to the global financial situation that led to increased search for investment opportunities, which drove some of those investments towards Turkey. No sooner had the Turkish economy slightly recovered than it suffered a more severe blow in 2020 as a result of the recession due to the coronavirus crisis. This paper assesses the course of the Turkish economy in 2020, and tries to explore its most prominent challenges in 2021.
Numerous indicators show that Turkey intends to continue its expansion in the region and that this expansion has become part of Turkey’s political and strategic doctrine to consolidate regional influence under the Islamist-leaning Justice and Development Party (AKP) government led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This paper sheds light on the incentives and drivers of the Turkish trend towards increasing regional expansion, the constraints and challenges facing it, and its potential consequences and future prospects.
Turkey is today undergoing significant political turbulence. President Erdogan’s popularity is in decline and the incumbent Justice and Development Party (AKP) appears increasingly vulnerable to
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