East Africa

Brief

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Juba Declaration and its Impact on Sudan’s Political Landscape

Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Chairman of the Sovereignty Council of Sudan and Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, Head of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) on March 28, 2021 signed in South Sudan’s capital Juba a “declaration of principles” (DOP) that constitutes a framework for political talks with armed groups to end conflicts in the country and rebuild the new Sudanese state.

EPC | 20 Apr 2021
Political Struggle between Somali President and Opposition Forces: Motives and Prospects

​A wave of violent protests erupted in the Somali capital Mogadishu in which a number of soldiers and civilians were killed, in the context of a severe political crisis created by the constitutional vacuum resulting from the end of the term of Parliament with its two chambers and the end of the term of the President of the Republic who clings to power despite the objection of most state rulers, political powers, clan and tribal powers, and civil society organisations.

EPC | 28 Feb 2021

Featured Topic

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British Presence in the Horn of Africa: Interests, Policies and Prospects

The tour of British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab in January 2021 that included Sudan, Kenya and Ethiopia reflects the nature of Britain’s new policies, London’s expanding efforts to maximize its influence in the region and establish a foothold there as part of the UK’s post-Brexit global vision. In its attempt to improve its ties with countries in the Horn of Africa, Britain depends on a number of pillars and approaches that enhance its strategic interests there. At the same time, London faces some challenges that curb Britain’s moves in the region such as the growing influence of the competing powers and the increasing security and terrorist threats. This paper highlights the nature of Britain’s interests and motivations in the Horn of Africa, characteristics and foundations of this interest, and the potential future scenarios for the British regional presence.

Ahmed Askar| 07 Mar 2021
Challenges of the Ethnic Landscape and the future of the Ethiopian State

​Many recent developments revealed a real crisis in the relationship between the centre and the periphery in Ethiopia. In the last two months of 2020, the federal government in Addis Ababa was forced to engage in a number of armed confrontations in the regions of Tigray, Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz, in addition to the outbreak of a wave of violent clashes between the Afar and Somali regions, and within the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR). The turbulent conditions in many Ethiopian regions constitute a major source of threat to the stability of the political system and the unity and cohesion of the state, which makes it useful to monitor the current situation in the various Ethiopian regions through a number of indicators, mainly the relationship between the regional government and the federal government, and the extent of the presence of the ruling Prosperity Party in each of those regions as a representative of Abiy Ahmed’s unionist project, in addition to the security situation and the state of conflicts in the various regions, and subsequently anticipate the different prospects of the Ethiopian state in the future, between the option of launching a process of radical change to the country's constitution to reformulate the relationship of the capital with the regions, or the option of continuing with the formula of ethnic federalism with the enhanced powers it offers to the regional governments.

EPC| 31 Jan 2021

Scenarios

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Sudan-Ethiopia Dispute Over al-Fashqa Area and its Potential Outcome

​The dispute between Sudan and Ethiopia over the Fashaqa border area has recently escalated. This is a long-standing dispute that began in the 20th century. This paper attempts to analyse and explore the consequences of escalation in the border dispute between the two neighbouring African countries in the light of the mechanisms adopted by the two sides to manage the dispute between them during 2020.

Samir Ramzi | 03 Jan 2021
Diplomatic Crisis between Somalia and Kenya: Motivations and Likely Trajectories

The Somali-Kenyan relations deteriorated once again after the Somali federal government announced, in mid-December 2020, that it is severing diplomatic relations with Kenya against the backdrop of what it described as "the Kenyan violations of Somalia's sovereignty and its open interference in Somalia’s internal affairs". Subsequently, Somalia ordered all its diplomats in Kenya to return to the country, and requested Kenyan diplomats in Somalia to leave its territory within seven days. Despite the atmosphere of optimism surrounding the meeting between the Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo at the opening of the recent extraordinary summit of the African Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) countries in the Djiboutian capital, the crisis seems likely to continue between the two sides until the date of the next Somali elections.

EPC | 22 Dec 2020

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