East Africa

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Security Arrangements and Incorporation of Armed Movements in Sudan’s Military Establishment: Chances, Challenges and Scenarios

On 3 October 2020, the Sudanese transitional government signed a peace agreement with the armed factions affiliated to the Revolutionary Front. The agreement comprised eight protocols, the most prominent of which are the security arrangements and the integration of the armed movements into a unified Sudanese army. However, this agreement was signed amidst the boycott of many armed movements, especially the Sudan Liberation Army, Abdul Wahid al-Nur’s Wing (SLA-AW), and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) (Abdel Aziz al-Hilu's Wing). This raises many questions about the future of the integration of the armed movements into the Sudanese army.

​Hamdi Bashir | 22 Oct 2020
Postponing the Announcement of Establishing Official Ties between Sudan and Israel after Pompeo’s Visit to Khartoum: Motivations and Connotations

During his recent visit to Khartoum on August 25, 2020, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had hoped to push the Sudanese government toward a rapprochement with Israel, but he left empty‑handed. This comes despite the earlier enthusiasm displayed by General Abdel Fattah al‑Burhan, Chair of the Sudanese Sovereign Council and Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces, at the surprise meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Kampala, Uganda, in February 2020. That meeting, arranged by the USA, is the only public meeting held between the heads of the two countries to date.

Samir Ramzy | 09 Sep 2020

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Struggle between the Federal Government and Tigray Region in Ethiopia: Dynamics and Scenarios

​Ethiopia stands today at the threshold of a new phase of turmoil that threatens the country's unity, territorial integrity and social structure, after the escalation of the dispute between the Ethiopian Federal Government and the administration of the Tigray region as a result of the tension that prevailed over the relation between them over the past two years, and that recently witnessed a serious development, namely the launch by the Ethiopian army of a military attack against the region. This raises serious questions about the fate of the situation in Ethiopia and the future of the Tigray region in light of the ongoing conflict between the region and the federal government.

EPC| 11 Nov 2020
Foreign Policy Making in Sudan: Determinants and Roles

The domestic balance of power in Sudan after the fall of President Omar al-Bashir obliged the creation of a political system in which there were several different poles of decision-making, both de jure (i.e. constitutionally) and de facto. This state of affairs has greatly influenced foreign policymaking over the last year, with the new reality raising a pressing question: who makes Sudanese foreign policy? Answering this question will help us deal more appropriately with this country – a country of great importance to both Arab and African affairs.

EPC| 13 Sep 2020

Scenarios

Future of Somalia’s Ruling System in Light of Upcoming Presidential Elections

Somalia is on tenterhooks following the approval by Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo of a new elections law, based on the principle of “one person, one vote”. Views among the country’s political forces vary, with the law already having faced a wave of criticism and calls for its reconsideration on the grounds that it is not suited to the current political, economic, and security conditions. The government and the political opposition in Somalia are highly polarized at a time when the country is preparing to hold its first direct elections at the end of 2020. Such polarization has led to further speculation about the future of the elections and of the president’s regime in the coming period.

Ahmad Askar | 06 Apr 2020

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