Bassem Rashed | 06 Sep 2020
The internal turmoil in Belarus has exacerbated since the announcement that the 65-year-old incumbent president Alexander Lukashenko has won a sixth term in the presidential elections on 11 August 2020. The announcement was followed by angry protests that roamed the streets of the capital Minsk, and whose repercussions spread to several other cities, rejecting the results of the elections, which were described as rigged. The protesters called on President Lukashenko to leave office and end his authoritarian rule of Belarus.
Shereen Mohammed | 06 Sep 2020
During the past few weeks, some international and regional powers, such as the US, Germany and Turkey, as well as the United Nations (UN), have called for the establishment of a demilitarised zone in Sirte, as an introduction to de-escalation and the settlement of the conflict in Libya. This gained importance after the announcement by Fayez al-Sarraj, head of the Government of National Accord (GNA) and Aguila Saleh, Speaker of the House of Representatives (Parliament), of a ceasefire between the two parties to the conflict. However, there is a divergence in the positions of the local, regional and international parties towards this call, in addition to the existence of a set of issues that impede reaching an agreement between the parties to the conflict regarding the establishment of a demilitarised zone in Sirte. This opens the door to multiple scenarios regarding the dynamic geography of the Libyan conflict.
EPC | 02 Sep 2020
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi took the political elites by surprise on July 31, 2020 when he announced that early elections would be held on June 6, 2021. He has since been leading a hidden political battle with the largest parliamentary blocs over the early elections.
This paper sheds light on al-Kadhimi’s motives for bringing the elections forward, the stances of the political elites regarding the move, and the prospects for the early elections.
Shereen Mohammed | 31 Aug 2020
On 25 August 2020, Tunisia’s prime minister-designate Hichem Mechichi announced the formation of the new Tunisian government, which comprises 28 portfolios, between ministers and ministers of state. The composition must gain confidence by a majority (at least 109 votes out of a total of 217 votes) during the session of the Assembly of the Representatives of the People of Tunisia (Parliament), which is scheduled to take place in early September 2020. This paper analyses the political significance of the formation of the Mechichi government, and presents the possible scenarios for its approval and the most important expectations regarding its future performance.
Muhammad al-Hadithi | 24 Aug 2020
The visit of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi to the US has gained great importance in the context of Iraqi-US relations, given the nature of the major changes taking place in the region and Iraq’s position within the framework of those shifts, as well as Iraq’s position in the US strategic perception and its role in the regional and international balances of power. At a time when the manifestations of the US-Iranian conflict in the region are increasing, Iraq emerges as the hottest arena of this conflict and its repercussions. Besides, the continued state of political instability in Iraq is linked to the continuation of the Iranian role in Iraq and the US continuous efforts to reduce that role and limit its effects.
Mohamad Kawas | 11 Aug 2020
The explosion that occurred in the port of Beirut on 4 August 2020 has caused a local shock in Lebanon and in all capitals of the world in a manner that resembles a "general international revolution" in how to approach the Lebanese file. It has also caused an internal political earthquake, from the violent movement of the Lebanese street that is opposed to the ruling class as a whole, to the resignation of Hassan Diab's government on 10 August 2020 and the putting forward for discussion of the various options and scenarios that await Lebanon in the coming days and weeks.
Amr Abdelatty | 09 Aug 2020
The relentless efforts made by Donald Trump, the President seeking to win a second term in the presidential elections on 3 November 2020, to question the legitimacy of those elections, his repeated statements about the possibility of fraud, and the lead by his Democratic opponent Joe Biden against him in most national public opinion polls, raise the question about the scenarios of rejection by Trump of his loss in the November 2020 elections. This question has become the focus of attention of strategists in the Democratic Party and many legal experts after the President avoided providing explicit answers to this question until now, which leads to an unprecedented test of US democracy since the foundation of the United States.
EPC | 04 Aug 2020
The Trump administration’s current policy on Iran has largely been a lost opportunity, as US sanctions against the country have failed to force Tehran into submission. The next US administration will therefore need to re‑assess its options. This paper discusses the potential future pathways of the Iranian question in light of the US elections in November 2020 and with regard to Tehran’s relations with the USA and the regional and international communities.