Research Unit

Scenarios

  • EPC | 14 Jun 2021

    Retired Officers' Initiative and the Political Crisis in Tunisia

    A lot of controversy has been raised about a letter that was sent by some retired Tunisian officers to Tunisian President Kais Saied on 28 May 2021, between those who considered it a manifestation of the military establishment’s desire to intervene in the stifling political crisis in the country, and those who considered it one of the tactics of the Ennahda (Renaissance) Movement in the context of managing the crisis of its relationship with the President of the Republic and its break with the active political and civil actors.

  • Ahmed Nadhif | 23 May 2021

    Libyan Muslim Brotherhood Transforms into a Society: Motivations and Future Trajectories

    In a radical shift, the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood (MB) has recently announced that it has transformed into a civil society under the name of “Revival and Renewal”.1 The Libyan branch of MB was established almost 7 decades ago (1948) as an affiliate of the umbrella movement in Egypt. This announcement comes in the context of radical changes in Libya and the Arab region. This paper seeks to analyze the nature of this organizational shift by monitoring the motivations of the group, the local and regional contexts of this shift, and attempt to foresee future trajectories of the movement’s behavior and the impact of this announcement.

  • EPC | 06 May 2021

    The Leaked Interview with the Iranian Foreign Minister: Implications and Considerations of Domestic Actors

    ​The leaked audiotape of the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif caused an uproar in the Iranian domestic political arena, became the talk of the town, and led to a change in the parameters of the Iranian political domain on the eve of the presidential elections, in the midst of negotiations with the parties to the nuclear agreement in Vienna.

  • Ahmed Nadhif | 01 May 2021

    The Struggle Between Kais Saied and Ennahda Movement in Tunisia: Causes and Likely Trajectories

    The differences that began more than a year ago between Tunisian President Kais Saied and the Islamic Ennahda (Renaissance) Movement – which has the parliamentary majority – escalated, to turn into an open struggle between the two sides and a media clash with statements, in the light of a multidimensional crisis that the country is going through at all political and economic levels, which was deepened by the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic. This paper seeks to analyse the nature of this struggle between the two sides by monitoring its indicators, revealing its causes and roots, and trying to anticipate the possible paths for its development in the future.

  • Bilal Abdullah | 13 Apr 2021

    Prospects for the Roadmap in Libya: Likely Scenarios

    Libya’s new Government of National Unity (GNU) headed by Abdel Hamid Dbeibah was able to win the vote of confidence of the Libyan parliament in an unprecedented unified session in the second week of last March. However, appointing the newly elected leadership through the dialogue forum does not represent enough guarantee to complete the implementation of the declared roadmap. There are other obstacles that prevent proceeding according to the timeline which calls for holding presidential and parliamentary elections on Dec. 24, 2021. This paper seeks to deal with the likely failure of upholding the implementation of the roadmap in case presidential and parliamentary elections were not held on the set date at the end of this year. Such scenario is open to several trajectories if the ceasefire holds on or the armed conflict erupts once again.

  • EPC | 21 Mar 2021

    Sulaymaniyah-Erbil Disagreement: Scenarios of Division in Iraqi Kurdistan

    The Kurdistan region of Iraq (KRI) faces a real challenge in preserving the existential benefits that it gained after the fall of the regime of the late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in April 2003, whereby the KRI became one of the poles of the ruling political system in Iraq. This time, the problems of the KRI are not a dispute with the central government in Baghdad as before, but rather a dispute between the two partners of the ruling regime in Kurdistan, namely the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led by Masoud Barzani, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) led by the family of the late President Jalal Talabani. This paper discusses the causes of the real dispute between the two parties and whether an administrative division is possible in the KRI authority.

  • EPC | 02 Mar 2021

    Al-Maliki’s Chances of Making Comeback as Prime Minister of Iraq

    The former Iraqi Prime Minister and leader of the State of Law Coalition Nouri al-Maliki is seeking to promote himself to head the next government that will be formed following the early elections that are scheduled for October 2021. During the past days, his coalition and other loyal parties began organising a media campaign to polish Maliki's image and launch an early election campaign that sparked various reactions in popular and political circles. This paper attempts to read Maliki's electoral chances, and trace his campaign and its impact on the Shiite alliance.

  • EPC | 28 Feb 2021

    Houthis Military Escalation in Marib: Motivations, Consequences and Scenarios

    ​The Houthis have launched a ferocious attack on the oil province of Marib, the last stronghold of the internationally-recognised government in the north of the country since the beginning of the second week of February 2021, in an escalation that is the largest and that comes immediately after the US announced their removal from the lists of foreign terrorist organisations, and in conjunction with a Washington-led diplomatic mobility and repeated European and United Nations (UN) calls to stop the military escalation and move towards a comprehensive political solution to the Yemeni crisis. This paper sheds light on the most important motives for the Houthi attack on Marib, and the messages that the group wishes to convey to the international community and its opponents and allies alike, and explores the repercussions of this escalation for the Yemeni crisis and the peace process, and possible scenarios.