Research Unit

Scenarios

  • EPC | 17 Feb 2021

    Biden Administration and Yemen: Orientations and Implications for the Conflict Parties and Political Solution Path

    The Yemeni crisis and the regional tensions that are fuelled by it have topped the list of concerns of the new US administration. On 4 February 2021, President Joe Biden announced the suspension of his country's support for the military campaign led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in Yemen, and appointed a special envoy to Yemen in an effort to strengthen US diplomatic efforts to "end the war" in this country. On the next day, his State Department announced the start of procedures for removing the Houthis from the list of terrorism, which was actually done on 16 February 2021.

  • EPC | 11 Feb 2021

    Israel-Iran Escalation in Yemen: Indications and Possibilities

    ​Tensions have escalated in recent weeks between Israel on the one hand and Iran and its allies, especially the Houthis, on the other hand. Each side has escalated on the ground and in the political and media space, and the two sides exchanged accusations, warnings, and threats with harsh responses. An important part of this escalation is related to the increasing concern of the Israelis about the development of the military capabilities of the Houthi group in Yemen and their access to advanced Iranian military technologies, including ballistic missiles and advanced unmanned aircraft capable of striking Israel, in the light of the possibility that Yemen may be the starting point of Iranian operations targeting Israel and US targets in revenge for the killing of Soleimani and Fakhrizadeh.

  • Mohamed Fayez Farahat | 07 Feb 2021

    Biden Administration to Review Agreement with Taliban: Likely Scenarios

    ​Despite the strategic mistakes in the peace agreement between the Taliban and the US, which was signed in February 2020 during the era of the Donald Trump administration, the Biden administration was not expected to announce its intention to review the agreement a few days after assuming its duties on 20 January 2021. In a phone call on 22 January 2021, the US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan informed his Afghan counterpart Hamdullah Mohib that the US will review the peace agreement concluded with the Taliban and that pursuant to this review, the US will reassess "whether the Taliban was living up to its commitments to cut ties with terrorist groups, to reduce violence in Afghanistan, and to engage in meaningful negotiations with the Afghan government and other stakeholders”.

  • EPC | 01 Feb 2021

    Increasing Tension in Libya’s Western Faction and Prospects of Settlement

    Over the last weeks of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, many signs have accumulated of rifts and a realignment between the actors of the camp affiliated with the Government of National Accord (GNA). It can be said that these tensions revolve around the competition over the restructuring of power, against the background of the settlement talks and the related redrawing of the map of security and military influence between the actors of this camp.

  • EPC | 31 Jan 2021

    Prospects of Egypt’s Growing Role in Yemen

    ​The past few months have witnessed a remarkable and increasing Egyptian interest in the developments of the Yemeni crisis. The invitation extended by Cairo to the Yemeni Prime Minister to visit it, its reception ceremony for him in July 2020, and the meeting of the non-resident Egyptian ambassador to Yemen with the Head of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in November 2020 were the most important developments and Egyptian diplomatic moves in this regard. These were considered by observers as indications of Egypt's desire to play a greater role In Yemen and strengthen its presence in the south of the Red Sea to curb and contain the growing concerns and threats to its national security, especially those resulting from the increasing Turkish intervention in Yemen and its territorial waters.

  • Samir Ramzi | 03 Jan 2021

    Sudan-Ethiopia Dispute Over al-Fashqa Area and its Potential Outcome

    ​The dispute between Sudan and Ethiopia over the Fashaqa border area has recently escalated. This is a long-standing dispute that began in the 20th century. This paper attempts to analyse and explore the consequences of escalation in the border dispute between the two neighbouring African countries in the light of the mechanisms adopted by the two sides to manage the dispute between them during 2020.

  • Sherif Abou El-Fadl | 29 Dec 2020

    Chances for the Recent “OPEC+” Agreement in Succeeding to Control Prices

    After several days of talks between members, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the countries allied to it from outside OPEC, led by Russia, in what is known as the OPEC+ coalition, agreed on 3 December 2020 to raise crude supplies by half a million barrels per day starting from January 2021. While the move constituted a positive support for the oil markets, this optimism remains fraught with caution due to the fragility of the markets as a result of the blurred expectations about the future of the return of economic activity.

  • EPC | 22 Dec 2020

    Diplomatic Crisis between Somalia and Kenya: Motivations and Likely Trajectories

    The Somali-Kenyan relations deteriorated once again after the Somali federal government announced, in mid-December 2020, that it is severing diplomatic relations with Kenya against the backdrop of what it described as "the Kenyan violations of Somalia's sovereignty and its open interference in Somalia’s internal affairs". Subsequently, Somalia ordered all its diplomats in Kenya to return to the country, and requested Kenyan diplomats in Somalia to leave its territory within seven days. Despite the atmosphere of optimism surrounding the meeting between the Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo at the opening of the recent extraordinary summit of the African Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) countries in the Djiboutian capital, the crisis seems likely to continue between the two sides until the date of the next Somali elections.