Research Unit

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  • EPC | 14 Jul 2021

    Iraq Political Developments: Implications for Early Elections

    As the October 10th, 2021 date for Iraq's early parliamentary election winds down, several issues and developments continue to cast a shadow over the country's political trajectory and raise questions about the vote, its integrity, and possible outcomes. Among the most important of these issues is a chronic electricity crisis that worsens even more during the summer months, the fact that most civil and protest movement activists decided not to participate in the elections, and recent moves by the country's main political actors.

  • Diyari Salih | 13 Jul 2021

    Disputed territories in Iraq: Security Dilemma and geopolitics

    This paper seeks to show the geographic importance of the so-called “disputed territories” between Baghdad and Erbil and their role in shaping Iraq’s security landscape. The importance of these territories has recently increased, not only in the context of talking about ISIS ability to exploit circumstances and escalate attacks there, but also in the context of understanding the impact of the geopolitical shifts in these territories on the internal balance of power.

  • EPC | 06 Jul 2021

    The Eastern Mediterranean-Red Sea Region: Stability Pillars and Threats

    Many political, security and economic developments have combined to impose an important shift in the geopolitical map of the confluence of the three continents of the ancient world, namely Asia, Africa and Europe. This hastened the emergence of strong indications of the formation of a new strategic circle that constitutes the intersection of many international and regional interests, in the heart of which is the region of the Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean, i.e., the two circles that were traditionally seen as independent domains before becoming more interrelated in recent years in terms of international interactions along with the geographical connection that already exists through the Suez Canal.

  • EPC | 30 Jun 2021

    Priorities of the Syrian Regime After the Presidential Elections and the Possibility of Their Realisation

    After the end of the presidential elections that took place on 26 May 2021, the Syrian regime announced a set of priorities that it would work on during the next phase. These included military, developmental and diplomatic items that are thought by the regime to constitute exits from the Syrian crisis. Realising those priorities requires high resources and costs, and political flexibility or a different political and diplomatic approach than before, which raises questions about the regime's ability to provide the appropriate conditions to achieve its priorities. This paper highlights the Syrian regime's priorities in the next stage, and discusses its ability to realise them.

  • EPC | 28 Jun 2021

    Daesh in Iraq: A New Rise in “Soft” Areas

    The terrorist organisation Daesh (Islamic State, ISIS) has resumed its field presence through activities in the regions of western and northern Iraq since the beginning of 2021, exploiting cases of socio-political conflict in villages and cities disputed on sectarian and national grounds, which prolongs the security tension in those areas despite the passage of four years since being freed from the organisation. This paper sheds light on the activity of the extremist organisation and the reasons for its recent recovery.

  • Ahmed Nadhif | 21 Jun 2021

    The Mercenaries' Dilemma in Libya: Domestic and Regional Repercussions

    On 22 May 2021, the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for Libya Jan Kubis warned the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) that progress on the main issue of withdrawing mercenaries and foreign fighters from Libya had stalled, and that their continued presence posed a threat not only to Libya, but to the entire African region. This warning brought back to the fore the dilemma of mercenaries in Libya, after months of optimism in the wake of the political agreement that ended years of war, and stipulated in one of its clauses the need for all foreign forces to leave the country within 90 days. This paper sheds light on the issue of mercenaries in Libya, first by defining the map of foreign irregular armed forces in the country, and secondly by analysing the political and security repercussions of the presence of those mercenaries, both at the internal and regional levels, as well as trying to anticipate future paths for the development of this dilemma.

  • EPC | 19 Jun 2021

    Sedat Peker's Videos and Their Implications for the Turkish Interior

    Sedat Peker is one of the leaders of the well-known nationalist mafias in Turkey. He is one of the biggest of those leaders and is well-known and prominent in Turkey. He is a Turanian nationalist who glorifies the Turkish state and considers committing any crime in the service of the “higher interests of the state” an honour he does not hesitate to pursue. In the past seven years, he appeared to support the government of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and President Erdogan, and has threatened Erdogan’s opponents on more than one occasion. Within the fierce competition that prevailed within the ruling party between the trend of the nationalist Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu, and the former Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, the son-in-law of President Erdogan, who relies on the Islamist trend, Sedat Peker aligned himself with Suleyman Soylu by virtue of nationalist tendencies. Soylu helped Sedat Peker to escape from Turkey in 2020 when he discovered that Berat Albayrak was trying to frame Sedat Peker and imprison him to get rid of him and break one of the arms of his rival Soylu within the party.

  • Nizar Abdul Kader | 17 Jun 2021

    The Fourth War in Gaza: The Formula for Deterrence between Israel and Hamas

    The fourth round of fighting between Israel and Palestinian factions led by Hamas erupted on May 10, 2021. This round lasted for 11 days only, while the 2014 war went on for 51 days. However, the latest round has embodied important developments in terms of military and strategic dimensions. These developments will not be limited to the future of any military confrontation between Palestinians and Israel; rather, it will include any potential confrontation between Israel, on the one hand, and Hezbollah and Iran, on the other. This paper seeks to highlight the objectives and outcomes of the recent war and its impact on the formula of deterrence between Palestinians and Israel.