Research Units

Publications

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  • Social Forces in Contemporary Iran

    EPC | 23 Apr 2020

    Our neighbor, Iran, is currently experiencing significant social turmoil in the face of escalating economic challenges and political crises – largely manifested in the form of ongoing public protests.

  • Internal and External Dynamics of a Rapidly Changing Turkey

    EPC | 07 Oct 2019

    Turkey is today undergoing significant political turbulence. President Erdogan’s popularity is in decline and the incumbent Justice and Development Party (AKP) appears increasingly vulnerable to

  • The UN Peacemaking Role in Yemen

    EPC | 01 Oct 2019

    From the initial crisis surrounding political transition, and through the ensuing war, the United Nations (UN) has played a variety of roles in Yemen, under its mandate from the international community.

  • Iraq’s Shifting Political Landscape and Foreign Policy Trajectories

    EPC | 25 Aug 2019

    Following the defeat of ISIS in late 2017, Iraq has entered a new era. A number of key internal and external factors will determine Iraq’s future in this new epoch and will have a significant bearing on the security and stability of the entire region.

Briefs

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  • President Trump’s Decision to Reduce US Troops in Germany: Motives and Implications

    Amr Abdelatty | 29 Jun 2020

    After leaks published by the US newspaper The Wall Street Journal on 5 June 2020 based on statements by a US government official in which he said that President Donald Trump has ordered the Defense Department to reduce the number of US troops present in Germany by 9,500 soldiers out of a total of 34,500 soldiers stationed there, in mid-June 2020, the US President said that his country will reduce the number of its soldiers stationed in Germany to 25 thousand. He considered that the US presence there incurs enormous costs that are borne by Washington in return for nothing.

  • Algerian Mediation Project in the Libyan Crisis: Background and Prospects

    EPC | 23 Jun 2020

    Algerian President Abdelmajid Tebboune has shown his keenness to put forward a project for a consensual peaceful solution in Libya. In recent days, the features of this project began to come out amidst a broad regional and international situation that puts pressure for a political solution at a time when the path of the military conflict is still open. This paper sheds light on the background and major approaches of the Algerian project in Libya and attempts to explore its potential prospects.

  • “The Caesar Act” and Likelihood of Dividing Syria

    EPC | 22 Jun 2020

    The US-imposed sanctions on Syria under the so-called “Caesar Act”, which entered into force on 17 June 2020, entail the risk of partitioning Syria and changing its strategic position. This would constitute an introduction to a geographical reformulation of the country after the war had contributed to tearing its national fabric and destroying its capabilities of political recovery and overcoming the destructive consequences of the war.

  • How does Iran view the Forthcoming Strategic Dialogue Between Iraq and the US?

    Firas Elias | 10 Jun 2020

    The call by the US Secretary of State Mark Pompeo in April 2020 to hold a constructive strategic dialogue with Iraq in June 2020 with the aim of discussing the future of the US presence in Iraq has revived talk about the future of Iran in that country, especially that the Iranian file will be one of the main files of the strategic dialogue between Washington and Baghdad.

Featured Topic

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  • Israel’s Inclination to Annex Parts of the West Bank: Annexation Options and its Geographical and Political Limits

    EPC | 22 Jun 2020

    As he promised earlier, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to announce the annexation of parts of the West Bank and the Jordan Valley in July 2020 in implementation of the US peace plan announced by US President Donald Trump on 28 January 2020. While the annexation process requires subsequent and extended political, legal and economic efforts, the move itself faces multiple Israeli, regional and international challenges. This paper sheds light on the Israeli scheme of annexing parts of the West Bank and the Jordan Valley, the problems related thereto, and the local, regional and international positions thereon. Eventually, the paper reviews the potential scenarios for the Israeli scheme.

  • Russian Measures to Expand its Political and Economic Influence in Syria: Reasons and Impact

    EPC | 16 Jun 2020

    The recent Russian steps in the Syrian file have raised questions about their significance and objective, especially that they coincide with local, regional and international developments in the Syrian file. On 25 May 2020, the Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed the Russian ambassador to Syria Alexander Yefimov as a special presidential representative for developing Russian relations with Syria. On 28 May 2020, Putin also signed a decree in which he delegated the ministries of defence and foreign affairs to start negotiations with the Syrian government with a view to handing over additional facilities to the Russian military and expanding their maritime control in Syria, provided that the new arrangements would be complementary to the agreement signed in August 2015 allowing for a military presence in Syria. This paper sheds light on those steps and explores their dimensions and impact in the Syrian context.

  • Potential Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic on British Economy

    EPC | 14 Jun 2020

    During the first quarter of 2020, the British economy shrank by 2%, the largest downturn since the 2008 financial crisis. This is despite the fact that the UK only began to implement lockdown measures on March 23, towards the end of the quarter. The UK’s GDP is expected to shrink by 25–25% in the second quarter as a result of lockdown measures implemented in April and May. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that most businesses would gradually be allowed to reopen during the first half of June.

  • Impact of Coronavirus Pandemic on Turkish Economic Sectors

    EPC | 11 Jun 2020

    The coronavirus pandemic (or COVID-19) has struck the economic sectors throughout the world and caused a sudden disruption in the financial and economic activity. Yet the effects of the pandemic have not been even across the various economic sectors in the world. While some sectors were severely affected which led to their bankruptcy and collapse, others were only partially affected. In contrast, some economic sectors thrived with the increase in market demand for their services such as the health sector. The decisive factor determining the extent and depth of those effects will be the duration of the pandemic in a country and the lockdown and quarantine measures that the government has to take. The above applies to Turkey as well, except for one important difference, namely that the coronavirus pandemic erupted at a time when Turkey had already been experiencing a significant financial crisis. That is why the consequences of the pandemic are expected to be twofold for the Turkish economy.

Scenarios

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  • The “Cairo Declaration” and Egypt’s Response to Shifts in Libya: Likely Scenarios

    EPC | 15 Jun 2020

    The initiative to solve the Libyan crisis, which was announced by Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo on 6 June 2020 in the presence of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA), and Chancellor Aguila Saleh, Speaker of the Libyan House of Representatives, comes in a context that is characterized by events of increased momentum, whether in terms of the field developments of the conflict or the international interaction with the developments, which is considered the highest in momentum since the Berlin Conference that was held in January 2020. The Cairo Declaration does not put forward a new proposition compared to the propositions in circulation or the ones internationally supported with regard to the peaceful settlement of the conflict. It can be said that the importance of the Declaration lies in what it reflects in terms of the Egyptian interaction with the current new balances in the Libyan arena. The present paper seeks to review those new balances from Cairo’s perspective, explore the features of the Egyptian response to those shifts based on what has been revealed by the Cairo Declaration, review the determinants and considerations governing the positions of international actors, and touch upon the most prominent scenarios of the peaceful settlement or military escalation based on this Declaration.

  • Al Kadhimi’s Government in Iraq: Challenges and Chances of Success

    EPC | 27 May 2020

    Mustafa al-Kadhimi managed to form the new Iraqi government after a seven-month political crisis that broke out after the outbreak of the protests against the government of Adel Abdul-Mahdi who resigned under street pressure. Al-Kadhimi faces a number of difficult political, economic and security challenges and, most importantly, managing the crisis of US-Iranian tension in the country. So, will the Kadhimi government succeed in facing those challenges?

  • The Impact of Coronavirus Pandemic on the EU and its Future

    EPC | 19 May 2020

    Europe has become the global epicentre of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic since the end of April 2020. Despite the accelerating increase in infections and deaths in February and March in Italy, which was the first and most affected European country by the virus, and even the country with the then highest number of infections globally, the response of the European Union (EU) was extremely slow. At first, EU institutions seemed unaware of the size of the danger threatening its member states. The initial response of the EU was described as awkward, which brought it under severe criticism by the most affected countries such as Italy and Spain. French President Emmanuel Macron warned of the collapse of the EU as a political project if it does not take serious steps to support the economies of the afflicted countries.

  • Coronavirus Pandemic and Britain’s Uncertain Future after Brexit

    Mohamad Kawas | 29 Apr 2020

    The years following the referendum on Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) have revealed that the “European club” is capable, despite the painful Brexit blow, of showing resilience and adeptly facing the British precedent. They have also shed light on imminent questions within the UK regarding the future, unity, stability and nature of the country that the UK aspires to be. The cornonavirus epidemic has raised the challenge to severe levels that have shaken the UK’s reputation in terms of its claim about being capable of resistance alone, without Europe, to fulfil aspirations that its EU membership had prevented.