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  • EPC | 20 Apr 2020

    Rings of the Embargo Imposed on the Iranian Economy: Effects, Gaps and Scenarios

    The US sanctions, placing Iran on the blacklist of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and the corona pandemic could be viewed as three separate, but integrated, rings that tighten controls on the Iranian economy and subject it to some kind of comprehensive embargo that isolates Iran from the international economic system. Each one of those rings serves to deepen the impact of the other two, despite the difference in the extent of the impact of each one. This paper seeks to examine the three rings of the embargo on the Iranian economy and shed light on the gaps created by each of the embargo rings, and shows how the other levels have greatly contributed to bridging those gaps and blocking the outlets through which the Iranian economy used to breathe. Finally, the paper determines the remaining outlets before the Iranian economy until now, and indicates whether those gaps could ensure the resilience of the Iranian economy for a longer period.

  • EPC | 07 Apr 2020

    Coronavirus and Iran’s Health Sector: Multiple Strategies and Possible Scenarios

    Iran has been suffering from the spread of coronavirus for two months, during which the country has become one of the major global epicentres of the epidemic and an important stop for its regional spread. After 10 days of its spread, the virus became the main focus of the activity of the Iranian government and state institutions, particularly the health sector that, after the spread of the disease, has become the main centre of the work of the government and official institutions. The Iranian president underlined that combating the epidemic occupies all the government’s energy and constitutes the only focus of its meetings. Iranian official institutions have sought to take several steps to counter the epidemic and prevent its spread based on the capacity of the health sector and crisis management strategies. These steps have witnessed several developments during the last few weeks, all of which demonstrate the attempt at finalizing the crisis management strategy and its maturation. They also demonstrate the existence of discrepancies between the various official institutions that have prevented the performance of a decisive role in controlling the disease and preventing its spread.

  • EPC | 17 Feb 2020

    Iran’s Parliamentary Elections: Political Actors Strategies & Potential Fallout of Conservative Victory

    Iran's political scene continues to heat up as the country gears up for the next parliamentary elections. On the official level, there have been verbal clashes between the conservative wing-held Guardian Council of the Constitution, which is charged with qualifying parliamentary candidates, and the government, which accused the Council of not being neutral and excluding all candidates who belong to political groups outside the conservative line. On the political groups’ level, the reformists keep mum on the elections after hundreds of reformist candidates have been disqualified from running in the forthcoming polls. On the other side, cracks have started to appear among the conservatives, otherwise known as the principlists. In the meantime, the grassroots remain relatively apathetic towards the electoral warm-up with no indications that there are above-average preparations for the next vote, sparking fear among regime's circles that the turnout might sink to unprecedented levels.

  • EPC | 03 Feb 2020

    Iranian Scene Expectations for 2020

    Over the next two years, Iran is likely to see harsh political and economic conditions; it is awaiting a parliamentary election station in 2020, punctuated by the prospect of a return to protests. The country will undergo a political transition from Rouhani to another president in 2021, and the likelihoods of a having a political transition at the level of the supreme leader are increasing. Iran is reeling under tough US sanctions and a deepening economic crisis, which spurs internal conflicts over power and resources. Given the peculiarity of Iranian-American relations, the remainder of President Trump's term is a period of labor and awaiting that leaves its impact on shaping the main features of any future political process in Iran.

  • EPC | 01 Feb 2020

    Iranian presence in East Africa: Goals, Tools and Prospects

    ran attaches special importance to eastern African countries. It conceives in this region a wide and fertile field for political, military and economic activities, particularly the countries bordering the Red Sea coast. Iranian interest in Africa magnified during the tenure of former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who placed the African continent on his foreign policy priorities, and put forward political, military and cultural goals for this issue. Due to the Western and American pressure on Iran over its nuclear program, Iranian foreign policy adopted a new strategy, through which it seeks to enhance relations with the countries of the African continent, with the aim of rallying African diplomatic support in the corridors of the United Nations and the Security Council to break the international economic sanctions imposed at the time.