• Ahmed Diab | 18 Dec 2020

    Iran’s Geopolitical Loss from the Azerbaijani-Armenian Agreement

    On 10 November 2020, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a "comprehensive ceasefire agreement" under overt Russian sponsorship and with tacit Turkish support, after the bloody battles that took place between the forces of the two countries in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. While most of the analyses focused on what Armenia’s defeat and Azerbaijan’s victory meant for both Turkey and Russia, evidence has shown that Iran is the biggest loser in this conflict.

  • Hamdi Bashir | 08 Oct 2020

    The Future of the Role of Iran’s Quds Force in Africa

    ​General Esmail Ghaani’s appointment as commander of Iran’s Quds Force, following the assassination of its former leader General Qasem Soleimani, has provided an opportunity for the organization to expand its role in Africa, where Ghaani has managed its operations for years. Rising US–Iranian tensions as a result of continued US sanctions and Iran’s desire for revenge for Soleimani’s death has prompted questions about the future of the Quds Force in Africa under Ghaani’s leadership.

  • EPC | 17 Aug 2020

    Assessment of Implications of Hook’s Resignation and Abrams’ Appointment as US Special Representative for Iran

    The departure of President Trump’s Special Representative for Iran, Brian Hook, and the appointment of Elliott Abrams as his replacement has raised expectations in the Iran and the wider region. This paper will examine the impact of this change within the US government on the eve of the US presidential elections.

  • EPC | 08 Aug 2020

    Extending Embargo of Arms Trade on Iran: Tehran’s Strategies and Chances of Success

    ​Shortly ahead of the expiry of the embargo imposed on arms trade with Iran (scheduled to end in October 2020), the issue of extending that embargo has become a major topic in the US rhetoric on the Iranian issue. This makes it likely to continue throughout the summer of 2020.

  • EPC | 15 Mar 2020

    Possible Consequences of Oil Price Decline on Iran’s Economy

    Oil prices dropped to record lows on March 9, 2020, which had a direct impact on national markets in the region, especially those of oil-producing nations. Although initial outlooks do not suggest that Iran will be greatly impacted by the drop in global oil prices, owing to the stability of its exports, kept at very low levels due to sanctions, and its apparent lack of dependence on oil revenues, the Iranian markets have nonetheless responded clearly to the price drop.

  • EPC | 05 Mar 2020

    Cyber-Attack on Iran: Dimensions and Implications

    Last February, Iran was hit by a major cyber-attack which brought national internet connectivity down to 75%. The powerful attack came after recent failed Iranian satellite launches, raising doubts about a potential role of cyber-attacks. However, and despite Israeli reports, Iran continued to deny the occurrence of any systematic attacks which seem to be mounted by the U.S. and its allies.

  • EPC | 20 Apr 2018

    Succession of the Supreme Leader in Iran: Influential Groups and Possible Scenarios

    Between late 2017 and early 2018, Iran witnessed its biggest wave of popular unrest since the suppression of the opposition Green Movement following the disputed presidential elections of 2009. Despite unsettling the political elite in the Islamic Republic, these latest protests have not been of sufficient magnitude to threaten the clerics’ grip on power.