Maghreb

Scenarios

  • EPC | 14 Jun 2021

    Retired Officers' Initiative and the Political Crisis in Tunisia

    A lot of controversy has been raised about a letter that was sent by some retired Tunisian officers to Tunisian President Kais Saied on 28 May 2021, between those who considered it a manifestation of the military establishment’s desire to intervene in the stifling political crisis in the country, and those who considered it one of the tactics of the Ennahda (Renaissance) Movement in the context of managing the crisis of its relationship with the President of the Republic and its break with the active political and civil actors.

  • Ahmed Nadhif | 01 May 2021

    The Struggle Between Kais Saied and Ennahda Movement in Tunisia: Causes and Likely Trajectories

    The differences that began more than a year ago between Tunisian President Kais Saied and the Islamic Ennahda (Renaissance) Movement – which has the parliamentary majority – escalated, to turn into an open struggle between the two sides and a media clash with statements, in the light of a multidimensional crisis that the country is going through at all political and economic levels, which was deepened by the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic. This paper seeks to analyse the nature of this struggle between the two sides by monitoring its indicators, revealing its causes and roots, and trying to anticipate the possible paths for its development in the future.

  • Bilal Abdullah | 13 Apr 2021

    Prospects for the Roadmap in Libya: Likely Scenarios

    Libya’s new Government of National Unity (GNU) headed by Abdel Hamid Dbeibah was able to win the vote of confidence of the Libyan parliament in an unprecedented unified session in the second week of last March. However, appointing the newly elected leadership through the dialogue forum does not represent enough guarantee to complete the implementation of the declared roadmap. There are other obstacles that prevent proceeding according to the timeline which calls for holding presidential and parliamentary elections on Dec. 24, 2021. This paper seeks to deal with the likely failure of upholding the implementation of the roadmap in case presidential and parliamentary elections were not held on the set date at the end of this year. Such scenario is open to several trajectories if the ceasefire holds on or the armed conflict erupts once again.

  • EPC | 01 Feb 2021

    Increasing Tension in Libya’s Western Faction and Prospects of Settlement

    Over the last weeks of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, many signs have accumulated of rifts and a realignment between the actors of the camp affiliated with the Government of National Accord (GNA). It can be said that these tensions revolve around the competition over the restructuring of power, against the background of the settlement talks and the related redrawing of the map of security and military influence between the actors of this camp.

  • Shereen Mohammed | 22 Nov 2020

    Escalation Regarding Guerguerat Crossing Point in Southern Morocco and Potential Scenarios

    Tensions have recently escalated at the Guerguerat (also Karkarat) border crossing between Morocco and Mauritania, which is located in a buffer zone guarded by United Nations (UN) forces within the Western Sahara region, after armed elements of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia el-Hamra and Rio de Oro (Polisario), on 21 October 2020, infiltrated into this region and disrupted the movement of civilians and commercial goods through this crossing, and sought to obstruct the work of military observers working with the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), who are tasked with monitoring respect for the ceasefire between the Moroccan and Polisario sides. This prompted the Moroccan army to intervene, announcing on 14 November 2020 its success in fully securing the buffer zone. Nevertheless, the possibility of escalation persists in light of the announcement by the Polisario Front of the end of the commitment to the 1991 ceasefire agreement with Morocco, which could pave the way for an overall military confrontation between the two sides.

  • Shereen Mohammed | 25 Oct 2020

    Succession of Ghannouchi and Increasing Division Inside Ennahda Movement: Indications and Scenarios

    ​The Ennahda (Renaissance) Movement in Tunisia is witnessing an escalating struggle between its leaders. This is mainly due to the problematic succession of Rached al-Ghannouchi as the head of the Movement, considering that the Movement has become divided between two groups, one of them advocating the continuation of Ghannouchi as the Movement’s leader by renewing his candidacy for a third presidential term to maintain the Movement’s stability and survival at the forefront of the country’s political scene, while the other refusing to amend the Movement’s internal law which stipulates that Ghannouchi may not assume the leadership of the Movement for more than two consecutive terms.

  • EPC | 19 Oct 2020

    The Announcement of Fayez al-Sarraj Resignation: Likely Scenarios in Libya

    ​In mid-September 2020, Fayez al-Sarraj, Chair of the Presidential Council and Prime Minister of the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, announced his intention to resign from his post before the end of October at the latest, in the hope that the Dialogue Committee would, by then, have appointed a new prime minister and Presidential Council. This came a few days after the interim government, based in the eastern city of Al-Bayda, also tendered its resignation to the president of the House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh Issa. The timing of these two events, and the continuation of each government’s activities within the scope of its temporary control, is a sign of progress in the current discussions on both the political and military tracks. It also provides a space in which to build common ground with a view to launching a new transitional period, during which existing divisions could be overcome and preparations could be made for holding presidential and parliamentary elections, in accordance with agreed constitutional provisions.

  • Shereen Mohammed | 13 Oct 2020

    Morocco’s Experience of Combating Terrorist Threats: Indicators of Success and Future Possibilities

    The Moroccan model for dealing with violent and terrorist groups, in particular Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, is one of very few cases of a pre‑emptive mechanism for preventing national security threats. Most Arab States have, by contrast, taken a curative approach to dealing with the consequences of terrorism (i.e. retrospectively, once the impact has grown), in particular after the 2011 revolutionary movement and the armed conflict that subsequently spread throughout several Arab States. This article will examine the “multi‑pronged pre-emptive” approach adopted by the Moroccan government, which blends political and security dimensions, especially in view of important economic factors compounded by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.