• Bilal Abdullah | 10 Sep 2020

    Protests’ Crisis in the Libyan Capital: Significance and Limits of Containment

    Since August 23, 2020, a wave of protests has swept across the Libyan capital and several western and southern cities in response to deteriorating living conditions and critical services under the Government of National Accord (GNA). Although public services have been deteriorating for a long time, political division among members of the GNA – the coalition ruling in the capital – is one of the main reasons why the warring parties have begun using the situation of popular discontent to undermine each other.

  • Shereen Mohammed | 10 Sep 2020

    IS Growing Activities in Tunisia: Catalysts of the Threat and Challenges of Confrontation

    ​On 7 September 2020, the Islamic State organisation (known in the media as Daesh, IS) claimed responsibility for a terrorist attack that targeted, right the day before, two National Guard soldiers. This attack could be viewed as a recent indication of the growing risks of Daesh activity inside Tunisia, in light of the availability of a set of local, regional and international contexts motivating its activity, and the significance of its recent operations despite the security mechanisms and development plans aimed at ending its presence in this country.

  • Ayman Shabana | 31 Aug 2020

    Declaration of a Ceasefire in Libya: Motivations and Likely Scenarios

    On August 21, 2020, the House of Representatives in Tobruk and the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli issued separate statements announcing a ceasefire across Libya and called for comprehensive national reconciliation and preparations for presidential and parliamentary elections at the beginning of March 2021. This development has sparked widespread controversy, some seeing it as a paradigm shift that could lead to a comprehensive political settlement, far from the combative approach followed by both parties, while others consider it a tactical move in anticipation of new, more intense rounds of conflict.

  • Hamdi Bashir | 26 Aug 2020

    The Risks of Islamic State Expansion into Southern Libya

    Fezzan Governorate in southern Libya has seen escalating Islamic State attacks on military sites belonging to the Libyan National Army (LNA). The organization has claimed responsibility for assaults against military sites during May and June 2020, and the LNA has announced that it has thwarted an attempted attack on the region’s oilfields.

  • EPC | 12 Aug 2020

    Tunisia’s Political Crisis and Prospects of Forming the New Government

    On 15 July 2020, the Tunisian Prime Minister Elyes Fakhfakh resigned after five months in power. On 25 July 2020, President Kais Saied appointed former Minister of the Interior Hichem el-Mechichi as the new Prime Minister. These developments came in the context of an acute political crisis that is open to many possibilities. This paper seeks to monitor and analyse those possibilities.

  • Bilal Abdullah | 19 Jul 2020

    French-Turkish Disagreements in Libya: Dynamics and Prospects

    The Turkish intervention in Libya has led to a significant change in the balances, whether between the two main military camps of the conflict, or within the same camp. Upon review of this intervention from the French perspective, it becomes clear that Paris is the international party most affected by the Turkish intervention, especially that the said intervention comes within a wider context of the growing Turkish influence in areas that represent traditional strongholds of the French influence in North Africa. As a result, the relations between the two countries have reached a high level of diplomatic tension and political and media exchanges during June and July 2020.

  • EPC | 14 Jul 2020

    The Tribal Equation and Settlement of Conflict in Libya

    Based on the available data, this paper attempts to evaluate the multiple indications that have emerged recently regarding the existence of attempts to solve the Libyan political crisis from the perspective of the principal role of tribes in the political reconciliation process instead of the regular political powers.

  • EPC | 23 Jun 2020

    Algerian Mediation Project in the Libyan Crisis: Background and Prospects

    Algerian President Abdelmajid Tebboune has shown his keenness to put forward a project for a consensual peaceful solution in Libya. In recent days, the features of this project began to come out amidst a broad regional and international situation that puts pressure for a political solution at a time when the path of the military conflict is still open. This paper sheds light on the background and major approaches of the Algerian project in Libya and attempts to explore its potential prospects.