• Bilal Abdullah | 08 Oct 2020

    Sirte Conference and the Future of Peaceful Settlement in Libya

    Scheduled for October 10, 2020, the Second Sirte Conference has been named after one held a century earlier — the first Sirte Conference of January 1922 on the unification of eastern and western Libya — in an attempt to give the upcoming meeting a particular sense of historical and national importance. The second conference follows on the heels the Bouznika negotiations in Morocco, at which the various Libyan parties reached an important agreement on the criteria for appointing officials to sovereign positions. It also comes on the eve of the next round of talks among the 5+5 committee, which is part of the military track seeking a settlement.

  • Bilal Abdullah | 27 Sep 2020

    Haftar-Maiteeq Agreement on Management of Libyan Oil: Implications and Calculations

    The Haftar-Maiteeq agreement regarding the resumption of work in oil facilities, which was mediated by Russia and revealed on 18 September 2020, reflects the level of complexity that characterises the conflict in Libya and the wide margin of manoeuvre enjoyed by the various internal and external players, in a way that makes any progress that could be made on the way to settlement a matter fraught with many manoeuvres and overlapping calculations.

  • Bilal Abdullah | 10 Sep 2020

    Protests’ Crisis in the Libyan Capital: Significance and Limits of Containment

    Since August 23, 2020, a wave of protests has swept across the Libyan capital and several western and southern cities in response to deteriorating living conditions and critical services under the Government of National Accord (GNA). Although public services have been deteriorating for a long time, political division among members of the GNA – the coalition ruling in the capital – is one of the main reasons why the warring parties have begun using the situation of popular discontent to undermine each other.

  • Shereen Mohammed | 10 Sep 2020

    IS Growing Activities in Tunisia: Catalysts of the Threat and Challenges of Confrontation

    ​On 7 September 2020, the Islamic State organisation (known in the media as Daesh, IS) claimed responsibility for a terrorist attack that targeted, right the day before, two National Guard soldiers. This attack could be viewed as a recent indication of the growing risks of Daesh activity inside Tunisia, in light of the availability of a set of local, regional and international contexts motivating its activity, and the significance of its recent operations despite the security mechanisms and development plans aimed at ending its presence in this country.

  • Ayman Shabana | 31 Aug 2020

    Declaration of a Ceasefire in Libya: Motivations and Likely Scenarios

    On August 21, 2020, the House of Representatives in Tobruk and the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli issued separate statements announcing a ceasefire across Libya and called for comprehensive national reconciliation and preparations for presidential and parliamentary elections at the beginning of March 2021. This development has sparked widespread controversy, some seeing it as a paradigm shift that could lead to a comprehensive political settlement, far from the combative approach followed by both parties, while others consider it a tactical move in anticipation of new, more intense rounds of conflict.

  • Hamdi Bashir | 26 Aug 2020

    The Risks of Islamic State Expansion into Southern Libya

    Fezzan Governorate in southern Libya has seen escalating Islamic State attacks on military sites belonging to the Libyan National Army (LNA). The organization has claimed responsibility for assaults against military sites during May and June 2020, and the LNA has announced that it has thwarted an attempted attack on the region’s oilfields.

  • EPC | 12 Aug 2020

    Tunisia’s Political Crisis and Prospects of Forming the New Government

    On 15 July 2020, the Tunisian Prime Minister Elyes Fakhfakh resigned after five months in power. On 25 July 2020, President Kais Saied appointed former Minister of the Interior Hichem el-Mechichi as the new Prime Minister. These developments came in the context of an acute political crisis that is open to many possibilities. This paper seeks to monitor and analyse those possibilities.

  • Bilal Abdullah | 19 Jul 2020

    French-Turkish Disagreements in Libya: Dynamics and Prospects

    The Turkish intervention in Libya has led to a significant change in the balances, whether between the two main military camps of the conflict, or within the same camp. Upon review of this intervention from the French perspective, it becomes clear that Paris is the international party most affected by the Turkish intervention, especially that the said intervention comes within a wider context of the growing Turkish influence in areas that represent traditional strongholds of the French influence in North Africa. As a result, the relations between the two countries have reached a high level of diplomatic tension and political and media exchanges during June and July 2020.