United States

Scenarios

  • EPC | 20 Sep 2020

    The “October Surprise” Scenarios in the Upcoming U.S Elections

    ​The concept of the "October Surprise" constitutes an integral part of the US political vocabulary during the US presidential election years. This term usually refers to the occurrence of an internal or foreign policy event only weeks before Americans go to the polls in early November, which may affect the election result. The presidential elections in November 2020 entail higher risks in case of such an event, given the severe political polarisation in the US. The presence of a small number of undecided voters in swing states is likely to determine the final outcome of the election. It is also likely that the decision of those swing voters will come in response to their automatic reactions to last-minute developments.

  • Amr Abdelatty | 09 Aug 2020

    What if Trump Refuses to Concede Defeat in 2020 Presidential Elections?

    The relentless efforts made by Donald Trump, the President seeking to win a second term in the presidential elections on 3 November 2020, to question the legitimacy of those elections, his repeated statements about the possibility of fraud, and the lead by his Democratic opponent Joe Biden against him in most national public opinion polls, raise the question about the scenarios of rejection by Trump of his loss in the November 2020 elections. This question has become the focus of attention of strategists in the Democratic Party and many legal experts after the President avoided providing explicit answers to this question until now, which leads to an unprecedented test of US democracy since the foundation of the United States.

  • Amir Nabil | 16 Dec 2019

    What will happen if Donald Trump is removed from office?

    There are indications that the efforts to remove President Donald Trump from office are gaining ground, given the growing calls from within the American legislature that he be taken to court with that aim in mind. Assuming that this happens (although many observers doubt its likelihood), what will be the main repercussions for the American political system and for the existing balance of power in the United States of America? What impact will it have on Washington’s domestic and foreign policies? And are there any other scenarios, whether theoretical or realistic, that could occur in the event that it does happen?