Yemen

Scenarios

  • EPC | 23 Aug 2021

    Yemen’s Economy in Crash Landing Mode: Implications and Options

    Yemen has plunged into a complex, severe, and multifaceted economic crisis driven by widespread macroeconomic instability. This crisis portends that the country is on the path of a total and imminent collapse if the international community does not intervene to stop it. This precarious situation prompted the Yemeni Prime Minister, Maeen Abdul Malik, and his Foreign Minister, Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak, to appeal to "brotherly and friendly countries" to provide urgent support to rescue the economy and cushion the risks and repercussions arising from it. This paper highlights the indicators of an imminent economic collapse in Yemen, its repercussions, and the options available to avoid such a collapse in the first place.

  • EPC | 11 Aug 2021

    FSO SAFER: An Ongoing Crisis

    Warnings of an increasing likelihood of an explosion or leakage from the "FSO Safer” oil tanker, which has been floating off the western coast of Yemen, 8 kilometers from the port of Ras Issa in the Hodeidah Governorate, have been mounting recently. This comes at a time when the United Nations and the Houthis continue to accuse each other of obstructing the implementation of an agreement they concluded in late November 2020, as well as a “scope of work document” for a UN expert mission that is supposed to be sent to assess the tanker’s situation and make some necessary repairs, pending a final solution to the tanker crisis. After declaring that the crisis had reached a “dead end", the Houthis accused the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) of "wasting time and donor funds allocated to the project on fruitless meetings and discussions, at a time when the situation of the tanker is much worse than it was when the agreement was signed."

  • EPC | 28 Feb 2021

    Houthis Military Escalation in Marib: Motivations, Consequences and Scenarios

    ​The Houthis have launched a ferocious attack on the oil province of Marib, the last stronghold of the internationally-recognised government in the north of the country since the beginning of the second week of February 2021, in an escalation that is the largest and that comes immediately after the US announced their removal from the lists of foreign terrorist organisations, and in conjunction with a Washington-led diplomatic mobility and repeated European and United Nations (UN) calls to stop the military escalation and move towards a comprehensive political solution to the Yemeni crisis. This paper sheds light on the most important motives for the Houthi attack on Marib, and the messages that the group wishes to convey to the international community and its opponents and allies alike, and explores the repercussions of this escalation for the Yemeni crisis and the peace process, and possible scenarios.

  • EPC | 17 Feb 2021

    Biden Administration and Yemen: Orientations and Implications for the Conflict Parties and Political Solution Path

    The Yemeni crisis and the regional tensions that are fuelled by it have topped the list of concerns of the new US administration. On 4 February 2021, President Joe Biden announced the suspension of his country's support for the military campaign led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in Yemen, and appointed a special envoy to Yemen in an effort to strengthen US diplomatic efforts to "end the war" in this country. On the next day, his State Department announced the start of procedures for removing the Houthis from the list of terrorism, which was actually done on 16 February 2021.

  • EPC | 11 Feb 2021

    Israel-Iran Escalation in Yemen: Indications and Possibilities

    ​Tensions have escalated in recent weeks between Israel on the one hand and Iran and its allies, especially the Houthis, on the other hand. Each side has escalated on the ground and in the political and media space, and the two sides exchanged accusations, warnings, and threats with harsh responses. An important part of this escalation is related to the increasing concern of the Israelis about the development of the military capabilities of the Houthi group in Yemen and their access to advanced Iranian military technologies, including ballistic missiles and advanced unmanned aircraft capable of striking Israel, in the light of the possibility that Yemen may be the starting point of Iranian operations targeting Israel and US targets in revenge for the killing of Soleimani and Fakhrizadeh.

  • EPC | 31 Jan 2021

    Prospects of Egypt’s Growing Role in Yemen

    ​The past few months have witnessed a remarkable and increasing Egyptian interest in the developments of the Yemeni crisis. The invitation extended by Cairo to the Yemeni Prime Minister to visit it, its reception ceremony for him in July 2020, and the meeting of the non-resident Egyptian ambassador to Yemen with the Head of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in November 2020 were the most important developments and Egyptian diplomatic moves in this regard. These were considered by observers as indications of Egypt's desire to play a greater role In Yemen and strengthen its presence in the south of the Red Sea to curb and contain the growing concerns and threats to its national security, especially those resulting from the increasing Turkish intervention in Yemen and its territorial waters.