EPC | 17 May 2020
The Syrian Daraa province is experiencing escalating tension amidst a fragile security situation and a multiplicity of actors with conflicting goals and policies. While the province is subject to a settlement deal based on a Russian guarantorship, a US understanding and regional support, the security situation in the province is prone to explosion.
EPC | 02 May 2020
Israel’s recent intensified airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria come within the context of a new strategy that is based on “driving Iran for good” out of Syria, which was disclosed by Israeli Defence Minister Naftali Bennett. To what extent can Israel achieve its new targets in Syria, and will its strategy be successful in driving Iran out of Syria?
EPC | 16 Apr 2020
Syria is one of the countries to which the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been transmitted. International and local reports have indicated that the epidemic is spreading in the country at an accelerating pace, resulting in infection figures that exceed the ones officially announced. This comes amidst warnings by international organizations against the serious implications that the epidemic would have, considering that the war has exhausted the country and destroyed its health and economic capabilities.
EPC | 31 Mar 2020
With the approach of an ending to the Syrian dispute, discrepancies between Russia and Iran have started to emerge in terms of the method that they should follow to achieve the envisaged strategic goals in that country. While it is illogical that they will get into a direct clash over Syria in view of the interconnected and complicated relationship between both countries, it is likely that the conflict between them over who will have the upper hand on the Syrian scene in the future will be of a silent nature, with proxies, intelligence services and perhaps some contending alliances as its main tools.
EPC | 17 Mar 2020
For the last two years, the war in Syria has focused on the country’s roads, leading some to coin the term the “Highway War”, referring to the M4 and M5 international highways that link the country east to west and north to south.
EPC | 15 Mar 2020
Having seized control over Islamic State’s last strongholds in Al-Baghuz in the eastern Euphrates in March 2019, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the USA declared victory over Islamic State. Despite the US assassination of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of Islamic State, in late October 2019, new warnings have been issued regarding the possible return of Islamic State to Syria, given the chaos and conflict on Syrian soil between various national, regional, and international forces.
EPC | 12 Mar 2020
Russia and Turkey have reached a new agreement on the situation in Syrian Idlib in Moscow on 5 March 2020. Yet the items of the Agreement declared at the end of the talks entailed a number of question marks on its fate and applicability, particularly that the Agreement was meant to supplement the Sochi Agreement, which was signed on 17 September 2018 and which the parties failed to implement. That failure was the direct reason for the outbreak of the recent round of conflict.
EPC | 04 Mar 2020
The current conflict between Turkey and Russia in northern Syria has added an unprecedented layer of complexity to an already complicated conflict. The ferocity of the fighting and the losses incurred by all parties are signs that the crisis in Syria has reached a peak. The rules of engagement, and the rules of the game in general, need to be rewritten. Both Turkey and Russia are seeking to do this against the backdrop of tensions and pressure. The question is: will they succeed, or is the conflict likely to escalate further?