East Africa

Briefs

  • Suhaib Abdul Rahman | 05 Sep 2021

    Can Turkey Tilt the Balance of Ethiopian Conflicts?

    ​Ethiopia is experiencing rapid and inflamed domestic and external circumstances. Ethnic conflict between its various regions has deepened, and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has moved the battle beyond its territory with its fighters penetrating deep into the Afar and Amhara regions. In early August, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed urged all Ethiopians, including civilians, to join the federal forces in pushing the rebels back. Ahmed has also been trying to mobilize regional support for his bid to resolve the armed conflict raging in the country for about 11 months.

  • EPC | 20 Apr 2021

    Juba Declaration and its Impact on Sudan’s Political Landscape

    Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Chairman of the Sovereignty Council of Sudan and Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, Head of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) on March 28, 2021 signed in South Sudan’s capital Juba a “declaration of principles” (DOP) that constitutes a framework for political talks with armed groups to end conflicts in the country and rebuild the new Sudanese state.

  • EPC | 28 Feb 2021

    Political Struggle between Somali President and Opposition Forces: Motives and Prospects

    ​A wave of violent protests erupted in the Somali capital Mogadishu in which a number of soldiers and civilians were killed, in the context of a severe political crisis created by the constitutional vacuum resulting from the end of the term of Parliament with its two chambers and the end of the term of the President of the Republic who clings to power despite the objection of most state rulers, political powers, clan and tribal powers, and civil society organisations.

  • Hamdi Bashir | 18 Feb 2021

    Significance of Visit by Africom Delegation to Sudan

    ​On 26 January 2021, the Deputy Commander of the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) Ambassador Andrew Young led a high-ranking military delegation during a visit to Sudan. This was the first such visit by a US military official to this country since it was removed from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism. This paper sheds light on the significance of the visit’s timing and objectives, and the prospects for military and security cooperation between the two sides.

  • ​Hamdi Bashir | 22 Oct 2020

    Security Arrangements and Incorporation of Armed Movements in Sudan’s Military Establishment: Chances, Challenges and Scenarios

    On 3 October 2020, the Sudanese transitional government signed a peace agreement with the armed factions affiliated to the Revolutionary Front. The agreement comprised eight protocols, the most prominent of which are the security arrangements and the integration of the armed movements into a unified Sudanese army. However, this agreement was signed amidst the boycott of many armed movements, especially the Sudan Liberation Army, Abdul Wahid al-Nur’s Wing (SLA-AW), and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) (Abdel Aziz al-Hilu's Wing). This raises many questions about the future of the integration of the armed movements into the Sudanese army.

  • Samir Ramzy | 09 Sep 2020

    Postponing the Announcement of Establishing Official Ties between Sudan and Israel after Pompeo’s Visit to Khartoum: Motivations and Connotations

    During his recent visit to Khartoum on August 25, 2020, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had hoped to push the Sudanese government toward a rapprochement with Israel, but he left empty‑handed. This comes despite the earlier enthusiasm displayed by General Abdel Fattah al‑Burhan, Chair of the Sudanese Sovereign Council and Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces, at the surprise meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Kampala, Uganda, in February 2020. That meeting, arranged by the USA, is the only public meeting held between the heads of the two countries to date.

  • EPC | 08 Sep 2020

    Juba Accord for National Reconciliation in Sudan: Outcomes and Prospects

    On 31 August 2020, the Sudanese transitional government signed a peace agreement with the armed insurgency movements, in what was considered by the ruling authorities in Khartoum a re-establishment of the Sudanese state and an end to the course of the long civil war that erupted decades ago in the southern and western regions of Sudan.

  • Hamdi Bashir | 09 Jun 2020

    Increasing Activities of Al-Shabab Movement in Kenya: Risks and Scenarios

    The Somali-based Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (Al-Shabaab) organization has been dramatically expanding its activities in Kenya since the start of the year. In January the group attacked a US airbase, and in April it killed six soldiers in the northeast of the country. Despite continued US strikes against the group’s strongholds, Al-Shabaab has continued to step up its operations, especially in northeastern Kenya.