East Africa

Briefs

  • Hamdi Bashir | 09 Jun 2020

    Increasing Activities of Al-Shabab Movement in Kenya: Risks and Scenarios

    The Somali-based Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (Al-Shabaab) organization has been dramatically expanding its activities in Kenya since the start of the year. In January the group attacked a US airbase, and in April it killed six soldiers in the northeast of the country. Despite continued US strikes against the group’s strongholds, Al-Shabaab has continued to step up its operations, especially in northeastern Kenya.

  • Ayman Shabana | 25 Mar 2020

    The Peace Deal in South Sudan and Prospects of Implementation

    On 13 March 2020, Salva Kiir Mayardit, the President of South Sudan, issued a presidential decree to appoint members of the Transitional Government of National Unity in accordance with the terms of the peace deal. This development paved the way for the debate between those who see it as a real step towards the implementation of the peace deal and the restoration of security and stability and those who consider it a mere response to external pressures, an attempt to buy time, and the deferral of an imminent clash because of which the country could relapse into overall civil war.

  • Ayman Shabana | 11 Mar 2020

    Sudan: Controversy Regarding Omar Al-Bashir’s Trial and Likely Scenarios

    Sudan has been caught in a deep controversy at the official and popular levels following the announcement that former President Omar al-Bashir and a number of his aides might be handed over to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. The debate between the opponents and proponents of the potential move focus on three main talking points: The extent to which the transitional authority’s intentions to hand over Al-Bashir were truthful; the feasibility of this step in ensuring the rule of law and justice; and its role in ensuring a peaceful transition towards building a new political order and bringing peace to the country.

  • Adnan Mousa | 25 Feb 2020

    Parliamentary Elections and Prospects of Political Change in Ethiopia

    Despite the tangible successes Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed achieved at the domestic and foreign policies’ levels since he took office in April 2018, he still faces numerous challenges. Some of these challenges pose a direct threat to his future in power, as well as Ethiopia's stability, especially as the country prepares for parliamentary elections in August 2020. This has made the Ethiopian political scene more ambiguous about the future of the ruling elite in Addis Ababa, and the prospects and limits of any political change.

  • EPC | 30 Jan 2020

    The Risks of "Islamic State" Expansion into Sudan

    On December 6, 2019, the Sudanese security agency announced that it had thwarted an attempt by terrorist elements to enter the country across the border with Chad, and the individuals in question had been handed over to the Chad government . This occurred after the Sudanese transitional government, which was formed in September 2019, announced the closure of the borders with neighboring countries, in particular Libya and the Central African Republic , in response to warnings by internal and external parties that Islamic State was heading for Sudan , at a time when the government was already facing multiple political, economic, and security challenges, in particular its inclusion on the US list of State sponsors of terrorism.

  • Ayman Shabana | 15 Dec 2019

    “Dismantling” the Former Regime in Sudan: Procedures and Repercussions

    On 28 November 2019, the transitional government in Sudan adopted three laws to dismantle the former national salvation regime and remove it from power, relax public freedoms, and achieve justice.

  • EPC | 30 Jul 2018

    Normalizing Ethiopian–Eritrean Relations: Motivations, Challenges and Potential Scenarios

    Ethiopian–Eritrean relations have improved significantly in recent months, culminating in the signing of the Asmara Declaration in July 2018, which committed both parties to end their two-decade-long border dispute.

  • EPC | 16 Jul 2018

    South Sudan: Prospects for Power-Sharing and Future Conflict

    On July 8, 2018, African mediation succeeded in encouraging all parties to the five-year conflict in South Sudan to sign a new power-sharing agreement. However, there are doubts as to whether this agreement will form the necessary foundation for a comprehensive settlement, having been reached under extensive foreign pressure rather than organically with the full conviction of the warring factions.