IRAQ

Scenarios

  • EPC | 02 Sep 2020

    Will Iraq Really See Early Elections?

    Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi took the political elites by surprise on July 31, 2020 when he announced that early elections would be held on June 6, 2021. He has since been leading a hidden political battle with the largest parliamentary blocs over the early elections. This paper sheds light on al-Kadhimi’s motives for bringing the elections forward, the stances of the political elites regarding the move, and the prospects for the early elections.

  • Muhammad al-Hadithi | 24 Aug 2020

    Al-Kadhimi’s Visit to Washington and the Future of Iraqi-American Relations

    The visit of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi to the US has gained great importance in the context of Iraqi-US relations, given the nature of the major changes taking place in the region and Iraq’s position within the framework of those shifts, as well as Iraq’s position in the US strategic perception and its role in the regional and international balances of power. At a time when the manifestations of the US-Iranian conflict in the region are increasing, Iraq emerges as the hottest arena of this conflict and its repercussions. Besides, the continued state of political instability in Iraq is linked to the continuation of the Iranian role in Iraq and the US continuous efforts to reduce that role and limit its effects.

  • EPC | 27 May 2020

    Al Kadhimi’s Government in Iraq: Challenges and Chances of Success

    Mustafa al-Kadhimi managed to form the new Iraqi government after a seven-month political crisis that broke out after the outbreak of the protests against the government of Adel Abdul-Mahdi who resigned under street pressure. Al-Kadhimi faces a number of difficult political, economic and security challenges and, most importantly, managing the crisis of US-Iranian tension in the country. So, will the Kadhimi government succeed in facing those challenges?

  • EPC | 28 Mar 2020

    Designation of Adnan al-Zurfi to form the Iraqi government and the chances of success

    Following the elapse on 19 March 2020 of the statutory period given to the political blocs to nominate a prime minister and Iraq’s entry into a stage of constitutional vacuum, President Barham Saleh designated former Najaf governor and member of the Nasr Alliance Adnan al-Zurfi to form the provisional government. This was soon strongly rejected by some parties close to Teheran, in spite of their previous participation in the consultations of the seven-member committee in which the main parliamentary blocs were represented. This raises questions about the possible failure of the prime minister-designate to obtain Parliament’s confidence, similar to the previous designate Mohammed Allawi. This paper sheds light on the behind-the-scenes circumstances of the designation of al-Zurfi, the positions of political blocs vis-à-vis his designation, and the chances of success of his designation.

  • EPC | 09 Mar 2020

    Mohammed Allawi Fails to Form Government in Iraq: What’s Next?

    Iraq's several-month long political stalemate is now back to square one after Iraqi Prime Minister-designate Mohammed Allawi withdrew his candidacy for the post on March 1st. Soon after the announcement, Iraq's caretaker Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi threatened a "voluntary absence" if no alternative to his government is found. Meanwhile, political blocs remain at loggerheads over a candidate who can fill the political vacuum and calm an angry street.