The Chances of Success of the Latest Diplomatic Mediation Efforts between Iran and the US

EPC | 01 Sep 2013

The paper discussed three possible scenarios: 1- First scenario: the success of bilateral talks leading to an understanding on the nuclear issue accompanied by talks with P5+1; this might be a vanguard for understandings on other issues at a later stage. This scenario is close to reality; 2- Second scenario: the success of talks leading to a comprehensive settlement on the nuclear issue and other issues such as Syria, Israel, Afghanistan and security in the Arabian Gulf. This scenario seems unrealistic because most of the issues overlap with interests and visions of regional and international powers; 3- Third scenario: talks stumble between the two sides; this scenario depends on the success of pressure exerted by the Israeli lobbies in the US and Congress, especially if the conditions of the understanding on the nuclear issue do not save face for the Iranian regime and if any American military operation contributes to the fall of the Syrian regime. This is a weak scenario because both sides are in an urgent need for this understanding.

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