In November 2020, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sacked his son-in-law, Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, in a humiliating manner that led to a political crisis within the ruling party and Erdogan's loss of his right arm therein. Erdogan offered his son-in-law as a scapegoat, declaring the failure of his economic policies. This matter will have negative repercussions for the cohesion of the ruling party after the process of liquidating the figures affiliated with Erdogan's son-in-law, and will lead to an increase in the influence of the nationalists within the party and in the government institutions.
The Turkish economy continues to suffer from its crisis which has deepened in 2020. November 2020 began with a rapid deterioration in the price of the Turkish lira due to the decision by the Central Bank (TCMB) to keep the interest rate unchanged during October 2020, until the price of the lira reached 8.58 liras to the dollar. Despite the slight improvement in Turkey's economy at this stage, the return of the lockdown measures due to the coronavirus pandemic that prevent discipline in financial spending threatens the return of the climate of acute crisis in the country.
Numerous indicators show that Turkey intends to continue its expansion in the region and that this expansion has become part of Turkey’s political and strategic doctrine to consolidate regional influence under the Islamist-leaning Justice and Development Party (AKP) government led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This paper sheds light on the incentives and drivers of the Turkish trend towards increasing regional expansion, the constraints and challenges facing it, and its potential consequences and future prospects.
Tensions in the eastern Mediterranean are at their highest in decades following Turkey’s decision to send a research vessel, the Oruç Reis, to prospect for gas and oil in maritime areas which Turkey believes fall within its exclusive economic zone, a claim disputed by both Greece and Cyprus.
The roots of the crisis stretch back several years to when commercial quantities of oil and gas were first discovered in the marine areas off the coast of the two countries. Given the geographic overlap between the two, both Athens and Ankara claimed rights to those resources, which has greatly complicated the issues of sovereignty and economic rights in the exclusive economic zones claimed by both sides.
Before delving into the causes of the dispute — in which Greece and Cyprus together are facing off against Turkey — and the possible outcomes, it will be useful to take a quick look at the history of relations between the three countries, which have so often been characterized by the threat of escalation and a growing sense of hostility.
Turkey is today undergoing significant political turbulence. President Erdogan’s popularity is in decline and the incumbent Justice and Development Party (AKP) appears increasingly vulnerable to
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