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Publications

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  • Internal and External Dynamics of a Rapidly Changing Turkey

    EPC | 07 Oct 2019

    Turkey is today undergoing significant political turbulence. President Erdogan’s popularity is in decline and the incumbent Justice and Development Party (AKP) appears increasingly vulnerable to

  • The UN Peacemaking Role in Yemen

    EPC | 01 Oct 2019

    From the initial crisis surrounding political transition, and through the ensuing war, the United Nations (UN) has played a variety of roles in Yemen, under its mandate from the international community.

  • Iraq’s Shifting Political Landscape and Foreign Policy Trajectories

    EPC | 25 Aug 2019

    Following the defeat of ISIS in late 2017, Iraq has entered a new era. A number of key internal and external factors will determine Iraq’s future in this new epoch and will have a significant bearing on the security and stability of the entire region.

  • Troubled Iran: Causes, Contexts and Consequences

    EPC | 07 Oct 2018

    On December 28, 2017, massive popular protests erupted in the Islamic Republic of Iran, starting in Mashhad before engulfing more than eighty cities and towns across the country.

Briefs

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  • Trump in India: Why Now?

    Mohamed Fayez Farahat | 26 Feb 2020

    Despite the advanced level US-India relations have reached since the end of the Cold War, there is still debate over the timing and motives of President Donald Trump's recent visit to India (February 24-25). The underlining motives may include the U.S. presidential elections race, peace-making efforts in Afghanistan, the growing Chinese challenge and reining in an Indian rush toward Russia.

  • Parliamentary Elections and Prospects of Political Change in Ethiopia

    Adnan Mousa | 25 Feb 2020

    Despite the tangible successes Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed achieved at the domestic and foreign policies’ levels since he took office in April 2018, he still faces numerous challenges. Some of these challenges pose a direct threat to his future in power, as well as Ethiopia's stability, especially as the country prepares for parliamentary elections in August 2020. This has made the Ethiopian political scene more ambiguous about the future of the ruling elite in Addis Ababa, and the prospects and limits of any political change.

  • Trajectories to Solve the Libyan Conflict: Calculations and Challenges

    Bilal Abdullah | 23 Feb 2020

    Efforts to resolve the long-standing conflict in Libya following the Berlin Conference seem to deliver some relative success on the military, economic and political tracks despite persisting challenges and difficulties. Given past failures of similar international conference and negotiations, this relative headway is of paramount importance to avoid another talk breakdown caused by the deep divisions between the various parties to the conflict. It remains difficult to predict a total success in any of these tracks in a manner that would make way for hammering out a final and lasting solution to the ongoing conflict. It is likely that one or more of these three tracks will hit a stalemate in an advanced stage of negotiation.

  • U.S. Democratic Party’s Presidential Primary and the Rise of Bernie Sanders

    Amr Abdel-Aty | 20 Feb 2020

    The results of the Democratic primary elections in Iowa (February 3, 2020) and New Hampshire (February 11) added a new dimension to the crises facing the Democratic Party and its successive series of failures. The results revealed a deepening division in the party after progressive candidate, Bernie Sanders, won the New Hampshire caucuses. The rise of Sanders has sparked fears among the party’s elite, who have begun to deploy policies that would undermine Sanders, and find an alternative to him as the party’s candidate in the next presidential elections in November.

Featured Topic

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  • Iraqi-Chinese Economic Agreement: a Debate on Objectives and Benefits

    EPC | 20 Feb 2020

    Shortly before its resignation at the end of November 2019 amid wide protest movement, the government of former Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi signed a framework agreement for economic cooperation with China that envisages the financing of major infrastructure projects from Iraqi oil exported to China. The agreement stirred a political, economic and even popular debate triggered by the government's failure to present the deal to the parliament and keeping some of its clauses untold. This paper sheds light on the context of the agreement, reviews some of its known clauses, addresses political positions thereon, and discusses claims that the deal actually serves Iran.

  • Europe's Divergence over Dispute Resolution Mechanism with Iran: Reasons and Scenarios

    EPC | 19 Feb 2020

    Europe's rift over Iran's nuclear deal continues to persist. While Britain and France take hardline positions, Germany and the EU foreign policy team continue to show understanding of the Iranian stances. However, this rift does not mean that the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), will remain unchanged. Other parties to the agreement might follow the U.S. path and withdraw from the deal, without necessarily leading to the collapse of the deal or putting the Iran's nuclear program back on the UN Security Council's table. Contrary to the Iranian consensus on how to deal with the United States, the Iranian regime appears divided over its relationship with Europe and how to approach the Europeans, amidst a steady decline in Iranian-European relations.

  • The Increased Activity of Al-Shabaab in the Horn of Africa: Implications and Limits

    Ahmad Askar | 18 Feb 2020

    Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, more commonly known as Al-Shabaab, remains the main security challenge in Somalia and one of the most significant threats to regional stability and security in the Horn of Africa given the recent uptick in the group's activity in Somalia and its growing expansion in the region. The terrorist attacks launched by the group are now claiming the lives of more civilians, military and government officials. This is in addition to targeting government interests and institutions inside and outside Somalia, which places a significant burden on the countries of the Horn of Africa and regional forces due to the risks and threats posed by the group.

  • Can Mohammed Allawi Succeed in Forming Iraq's Next Government?

    EPC | 17 Feb 2020

    In a repeat of Adel Abdul-Mahdi's elevation to Iraq's premiership, the leader of the Sadrist Movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, and the leader of the pro-Iran Al-Fatah Alliance, Hadi al-Amiri, agreed to nominate former Minister of Communications Muhammad Tawfiq Allawi as a new prime minister. Once Allawi was officially designated by the President of the Republic, Barham Salih, on February 1, 2020, the demonstrations intensified in Baghdad and a number of southern provinces denouncing their ally's, Al-Sadr, departure from the protesters' conditions that the next prime minister must be independent, does not hold two nationalities and has not been a member of any previous government.

Scenarios

  • What if the U.S. and Taliban Sign a Peace Agreement?

    Mohamed Fayez Farahat | 20 Feb 2020

    In a remarkable turn of events, the two parties to Afghanistan's 19-year conflict, the United States (U.S.) and the Taliban, decided to sit at the same table for direct talks aimed at nailing down a "peace deal". This qualitative shift is partly necessitated by massive human and material costs incurred by the two parties since 2001 without either of them being able to resolve the conflict militarily. Nor did the political system that was built in Afghanistan after the removal of the Taliban regime succeed in proving political or economic or security efficiency, which kept the Taliban alive and kicking to this day.

  • Iranian Scene Expectations for 2020

    EPC | 05 Feb 2020

    Over the next two years, Iran is likely to see harsh political and economic conditions; it is awaiting a parliamentary election station in 2020, punctuated by the prospect of a return to protests. The country will undergo a political transition from Rouhani to another president in 2021, and the likelihoods of a having a political transition at the level of the supreme leader are increasing. Iran is reeling under tough US sanctions and a deepening economic crisis, which spurs internal conflicts over power and resources. Given the peculiarity of Iranian-American relations, the remainder of President Trump's term is a period of labor and awaiting that leaves its impact on shaping the main features of any future political process in Iran.

  • What will happen if Donald Trump is removed from office?

    Amir Nabil | 16 Dec 2019

    There are indications that the efforts to remove President Donald Trump from office are gaining ground, given the growing calls from within the American legislature that he be taken to court with that aim in mind. Assuming that this happens (although many observers doubt its likelihood), what will be the main repercussions for the American political system and for the existing balance of power in the United States of America? What impact will it have on Washington’s domestic and foreign policies? And are there any other scenarios, whether theoretical or realistic, that could occur in the event that it does happen?