After the National Dialogue

EPC | 06 Sep 2013

The Southern Movement faced huge international pressure to convince them to return to the National Dialogue Conference (NDC) with local and international guarantees to implement all of the conference’s outcomes. Those outcomes will be prepared by a committee composed evenly by representatives from the north and the south. The state system will be adopted without defining the regions, which will be done in the second transitional stage. As the work of NDC and the transitional period are approaching their end, political bargaining is active behind the scenes, notably the president’s effort to ensure an extension for another term in office. The political forces will seek to take advantage of this desire to extract from the president more concessions, with al-Islah party as the most active force in this field. If Mansur Hadi gets an extension, this will come as part of a deal that brings back the party as a partner in government. This in turn will prevent the government from achieving any stability or create more jobs and the economic situation in the country and the living conditions of Yemenis will be disastrous, because half of the government is hindering the other half. This is what is taking place in the current government and several parties will try to flare up the security situation to destabilize the regime,while the Houthis will be in a place of power in front of a weak regime. In turn, this will pave the way for the Houthis for more expansion, and more influence, and put their supporters in critical institutions such as the army and police. The power-sharing government will not be able to implement the outcome of the dialogue due to political bickering. This will lead to more complaints by the Southern Movement and consolidate calls for separation. Moreover, one of the Southern Movement’s factions might resort to military action and such a situation will create an ideal environment for warlords and create multiple militias and semi-independent cantons.

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