COVID-19 pandemic

Potential Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic on British Economy

EPC | 14 Jun 2020

During the first quarter of 2020, the British economy shrank by 2%, the largest downturn since the 2008 financial crisis. This is despite the fact that the UK only began to implement lockdown measures on March 23, towards the end of the quarter. The UK’s GDP is expected to shrink by 25–25% in the second quarter as a result of lockdown measures implemented in April and May. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that most businesses would gradually be allowed to reopen during the first half of June.

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Impact of Coronavirus Pandemic on Turkish Economic Sectors

EPC | 11 Jun 2020

The coronavirus pandemic (or COVID-19) has struck the economic sectors throughout the world and caused a sudden disruption in the financial and economic activity. Yet the effects of the pandemic have not been even across the various economic sectors in the world. While some sectors were severely affected which led to their bankruptcy and collapse, others were only partially affected. In contrast, some economic sectors thrived with the increase in market demand for their services such as the health sector. The decisive factor determining the extent and depth of those effects will be the duration of the pandemic in a country and the lockdown and quarantine measures that the government has to take. The above applies to Turkey as well, except for one important difference, namely that the coronavirus pandemic erupted at a time when Turkey had already been experiencing a significant financial crisis. That is why the consequences of the pandemic are expected to be twofold for the Turkish economy.

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The Future of the African Continent in Light of Covid-19 Crisis

Ahmad Askar | 11 May 2020

The large-scale spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa raises numerous concerns about the extent of readiness of its countries in countering the epidemic and the nature and magnitude of the losses they sustain. These concerns get even worse in view of the challenges faced by the continent on all fronts, particularly with regard to the continent’s poor health system and the possible consequences of failure to counter the pandemic. This maximizes the continent’s political, economic, security and social costs in a manner that would adversely reflect on the future of the African continent and its relationship with the outside world going forward.

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Supply Chains and the COVID-19 Crisis: Current Problems and Potential Future Trends

Mohamed Fayez Farahat | 26 Apr 2020

The concentration of the COVID-19 crisis in China, during the period from December 2019 till February 2020, has resulted in the disruption of many of those chains. This has resulted in the disruption of production in a number of major companies, both inside and outside China. This has then resulted in questions being raised about the feasibility of relying on Chinese supply chains. However, with the further spread of the virus and its extension to Europe, the US and most other regions, the supply chain problems have gained a global rather than a Chinese nature. Thus, the question of the feasibility of reliance on Chinese supply chains has shifted to the discussion of the supply chain problem in general.

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Coronavirus and Iran’s Health Sector: Multiple Strategies and Possible Scenarios

EPC | 07 Apr 2020

Iran has been suffering from the spread of coronavirus for two months, during which the country has become one of the major global epicentres of the epidemic and an important stop for its regional spread. After 10 days of its spread, the virus became the main focus of the activity of the Iranian government and state institutions, particularly the health sector that, after the spread of the disease, has become the main centre of the work of the government and official institutions. The Iranian president underlined that combating the epidemic occupies all the government’s energy and constitutes the only focus of its meetings. Iranian official institutions have sought to take several steps to counter the epidemic and prevent its spread based on the capacity of the health sector and crisis management strategies. These steps have witnessed several developments during the last few weeks, all of which demonstrate the attempt at finalizing the crisis management strategy and its maturation. They also demonstrate the existence of discrepancies between the various official institutions that have prevented the performance of a decisive role in controlling the disease and preventing its spread.

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Consequences of Coronavirus Pandemic on Turkish Economy

EPC | 05 Apr 2020

The spread of the corona epidemic is expected to affect the Turkish economy in three different areas: first, the global interruption and slowdown of the movement of goods and services which will affect Turkey’s foreign trade; second, the decline in local demand due to the climate of lack of confidence, uncertainty and unemployment; and third, the increasing difficulty in finding and accessing foreign financiers and investors due to the reduced desire globally to invest and take risks. This paper looks in detail into all three areas, discusses the government support plan announced by president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and assesses the extent that this support would be capable of dealing with the adverse effects of the crisis. The paper also attempts to draw a picture of Turkey’s economic situation till the end of this year while taking into account the implications of the spread of corona for the world economy.

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Iraq and Risk of Spread of Coronavirus Pandemic: Measures, Consequences and Scenarios

EPC | 24 Mar 2020

Although according to official figures and based on monitoring the media and following social media websites, Iraq continues to rank low on the list of countries affected by the coronavirus, compared to Iran, one of the epicentres for the spread of the virus, and considering the heavy transport and human movement traffic with it, all circumstances are fit to transform that global threat into an existential threat for the Iraqi people, no less dangerous than the overrun by ISIS of large areas of the country in 2014.

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China’s Experience in Confronting COVID-19: Factors of Success, Aspects of Weakness and Lessons Learned

Mohamed Fayez Farahat | 19 Mar 2020

Coronavirus, or COVID-19 as it has come to be known, first appeared in a Chinese city (Wuhan) in December 2019. Infections and deaths because of the virus grew at an increasing pace, which led the Chinese authorities to declare top-level emergency in many of the country’s provinces to counter the rapid spread of the disease. As a result of the tight method adopted by the Chinese government in managing the virus spread crisis, rates of infection and death began to fall remarkably starting from the third quarter of February 2020. So much so that no new infections of local origin were recorded on 19 March. This paper sheds light on some aspects of the Chinese experience in countering the spread of coronavirus, how China succeeded in managing and containing the impacts of one of the most dangerous health crises which the country has faced in its contemporary history, the most salient vulnerabilities relevant to this process, and what the world can learn from all this.

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China’s Coronavirus Crisis: Economic and Political Costs

Mohamed Fayez Farahat | 13 Feb 2020

The outbreak of the novel Coronavirus in China has developed strikingly fast, making the response to this crisis not an exclusive Chinese responsibility, but rather a global duty. This is due to the characteristics of this new strain of the virus, the factors that helped the spread of the disease in a relatively short period of time, and the concerns it stirred at the international level and among ordinary people in different parts of the world.

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