Preventing a Nuclear Iran: Choices of Regional and Global Powers

EPC | 28 Jun 2021
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Overview

Tehran announced that it has started Uranium enrichment at 60% in a precedent that we have not seen in any previous cycles of escalation.

Diplomats and experts affirm that this percentage indicates that Iran’s pursuit to become a “nuclear threshold” state puts the international community before a new reality.

This escalation could be part of Tehran’s efforts to gain more concessions from the West during talks of returning to the nuclear deal.

However, some information indicates that this issue goes beyond the negotiation game with the West and can be interpreted as part of Iran’s growing ambitions to become a nuclear threshold state. While this step reflects the desire of some sovereign entities outside the Iranian government, the latter supports this move to a great extent.

All of this has revived speculations on Iran’s nuclear breakout time and has negatively affected the credibility of the monitoring and verification system set up by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Several indications have come out of Iran in recent months on the need to move towards acquiring the atomic bomb. Iranian President Hasan Rouhani affirmed that it is a matter of hours if Iran choses to enrich uranium to 90 per cent, which traditionally means reaching the “nuclear threshold”. So, what separates Iran from the “nuclear threshold” is a political decision. Iranian minister of intelligence has once said that Tehran could move in this direction if pressure continues on his country. This raises the following questions:

  1. Are we going to see the 2015 Iran’s model where “dialogue was held when the international community was terrified of the possibility of Iran acquiring the nuclear bomb”?
  2. Are we going to see the Iraqi model when the country’s nuclear facilities were targeted and its nuclear program was crippled? Israel then insisted on implementing that choice.
  3. Are we going to see the Pakistani and the North Korean models when “dialogue was held while the nuclear bomb was in their possession”?
  4. Or are we going to see a new model of a nuclear state. A state that espouses an aggressive expansionist regional agenda and uses its nuclear power as a threat to enforce its agenda for regional hegemony?
  5. What are the choices of regional and global powers on each of these potential scenarios?

EPC is honored to invite you to attend the webinar, which will be live streamed on the center’s account on all various social media platforms, as well as, on its YouTube channel.

Anyone who would like to attend the webinar via Zoom application can join the event by clicking on the following link:

REGISTER

 

Time

Monday, June 28, 2020 from 17:30-19:40 UAE local time (from 13:30-15:40 GMT) via Zoom application.

Speakers

  • Amb. Dore Gold, President of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. Amb. Gold has previously served as Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations and as the Director General of Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
  • Marc Finaud, Head of ‘Arms Proliferation’ and ‘Diplomatic Tradecraft’ at Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP). Mr. Finaud trains diplomats and military officers in international and human security, and conducts research in those fields.
  • Brig. Gen Udi Dekel, Managing Director and Senior Research Fellow of the Institute for National Security Studies. Brig. Gen. Dekel filled many senior IDF positions in intelligence, international military cooperation, and strategic planning.
  • Kirsten Fontenrose, Director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council. Ms. Fontenrose worked with the national security apparatuses of Middle Eastern nations during her career in the public and private sector.
  • Brig. Gen. Yosef Kuperwasser, Senior project manager on regional affairs at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. Brig Gen. Kuperwasser has authored a wide variety of publications on the Middle East, terrorism and intelligence.
  • Dr. Cornelius Adebahr, Nonresident fellow at Carnegie Europe. Dr. Adebahr’s research focuses on foreign and security policy, in particular regarding Iran and the Arabian Gulf.

 

Moderator

  • Dr. Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, President of Emirates Policy Center and a Professor of Political Science at United Arab Emirates University.

Venue Details

Video conference.