South Africa faces the threat of the expansion of Daesh (Islamic State, IS) organisation after the escalation of its attacks in neighbouring Mozambique. The organisation has threatened South Africa to open a front therein in case South Africa engages militarily against the organisation, especially after South Africa sent special forces to support efforts to combat terrorism in Mozambique. This raises many questions about Daesh's incentives for expansion in South Africa, the risks of this expansion, and the possible scenarios to combat it.
Incentives for Daesh’s expansion in South Africa
Opportunities and challenges of expansion in South Africa
Opportunities:
Challenges:
Risks of the expansion of Daesh in South Africa
Scenarios for the war on terror in the region
First scenario: South Africa intervenes militarily with the aim of combating terrorism in Mozambique, especially in light of the growing international and domestic demands for a military intervention to combat Daesh terrorism. Discussions are ongoing between South Africa and Mozambique in this regard. Information indicates that in July 2020, South Africa had already deployed special forces in Cabo Delgado.[21] The South African Armed Forces Rapid Intervention Unit is training a group of counterterrorism commandos in Mozambique.[22] However, South Africa is still reluctant to expand its military operations for fear of getting involved in a prolonged war on terror in the region,[23] especially in light of its involvement in implementing measures to combat the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic (Covid-19).
Second scenario: regional intervention through a joint military force of the SADC countries, especially that there is a military mechanism to intervene for combating terrorism, training and exchanging intelligence. In May 2020, the government of Mozambique requested SADC’s help, especially that Mozambique assumed the rotating presidency of the bloc, which helps it obtain military assistance.[24] However, while some countries, such as the government of Zimbabwe, declared their willingness to intervene ,[25] some other countries are still hesitant due to the economic pressures associated with diverting military spending to respond to the coronavirus crisis.[26]
Third scenario: regional intervention through the African Union (AU). African leaders discussed the escalating terrorist threat in Mozambique at the 33rd AU Summit in Addis Ababa in January 2020. This threat was described as a “totally new threat” that has reached “unprecedented levels”. However, despite the AU’s willingness to provide military assistance, it restricted that assistance to information sharing, provision of equipment, and training of security forces in Mozambique.[27]
Conclusion
It appears that the likely scenario for a military intervention to combat terrorism in the region in light of the political and security challenges facing the member states of the SADC grouping is the limited military intervention by South Africa through the provision of logistical assistance and military training to the security forces in Mozambique, and military cooperation and coordination with neighbouring countries such as Zimbabwe and Tanzania.
References
[1] Raeesah Cassim Cachalia and Albertus Schoeman, Violent extremism in South Africa: Assessing the current threat, Southern Africa Report 7 , May 2017, p.8.
[2] Peter Fabricus, Is Islamist terrorism starting to emerge in South Africa?, 25/10/2018, available at: https://issafrica.org/iss-today/is-islamist-terrorism-starting-to-emerge-in-south-africa
[3] Leigh Hamilton, Dave Bax and Rami Sayed, Understanding and Responding to Extremist Threats in Southern Africa, Policy Brief, Issue No. 1, March 2018, p.3.
[4] Tonderayi Mukeredzi, Mozambique’s Insurgency Is a Regional Problem, 1/7/2020, available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/01/mozambique-islamist-insurgency-regional-problem-cabo-delgado/
[5] Isabel Kreifels, Violent Extremism in South Africa: Is there a Risk?, 5/9/2018, available at: https://www.saferspaces.org.za/blog/entry/violent-extremism-in-south-africa-is-their-a-risk
[6] Sirwan Kajjo and Amancio Vilanculos, Can Regional Powers Help Combat Insurgency in Northern Mozambique?, 23/8/2020, available at: https://www.voanews.com/extremism-watch/can-regional-powers-help-combat-insurgency-northern-mozambique
[7] Leigh Hamilton, Dave Bax and Rami Sayed, op. cit, p.3.
[8] Brian M. Perkins, Motivations and Roadblocks for South African Intervention in Mozambique, Terrorism Monitor, Issue: 16, August 14, 2020, p.3.
[9] Idem.
[10] SA man accused of terror-related activities in Mozambique to appear in court, 31/2019, available at: https://satac.co.za/sa-man-accused-of-terror-related-activities-in-mozambique-to-appear-in-court/
[11] Isabel Kreifels, op. cit.
[12] Idem.
[13] Leigh Hamilton, Dave Bax and Rami Sayed, op. cit, p.3.
[14] Tonderayi Mukeredzi, op. cit.
[15] Idem.
[16] SADC seized with regional security situation …as action is taken on insurgency in Mozambique, 20/5/2020, available at: https://www.sardc.net/en/southern-african-news-features/sadc-seized-with-regional-security-situation-as-action-is-taken-on-insurgency-in-mozambique/
[17] Isabel Kreifels, op. cit.
[18] Raeesah Cassim Cachalia and Albertus Schoeman, op. cit, p.4.
[19] Jacco van der Veen, A Very Private War: The Failure of Mozambique’s Approach to Defeating an Islamist Insurgency, JASON Institute for Peace and Security Studies, 19/7/2020, available at: https://bit.ly/2EWVbFS
[20] Theo Neethling, South Africa’s interest in extremist violence in northern Mozambique, 223/6/2020, available at: https://www.theafricareport.com/30898/south-africas-interest-in-extremist-violence-in-northern-mozambique/
[21] Jacco van der Veen, op. cit.
[22] Pedro Tadeu, A África do Sul deve entrar em Moçambique?, 30/7/2020, available at: https://www.plataformamedia.com/2020/07/30/a-africa-do-sul-deve-entrar-em-mocambique/
[23] Leighton G. Luke, op. cit.
[24] Idem.
[25] Brian M. Perkins, op. cit. p.3.
[26] Tonderayi Mukeredzi, op. cit.
[27] Liesl Louw-Vaudran, Can the African Union help Mozambique combat terrorism?, 13/2/2020, available at: https://issafrica.org/iss-today/can-the-african-union-help-mozambique-combat-terrorism
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