The Likely Scenario: An Open Struggle between the State and the Muslim Brotherhood

While most analyses talked about the likelihood of a “conditional containment” of the Muslim Brotherhood by the Egyptian state, this alert raises the likelihood of an “open struggle” scenario. The alert was based on the special calculations of the Muslim Brotherhood, notably, the feeling of a strong internal cohesion within the movement, the strength of its Islamists allies and the role of its global organization. The alert raises the likelihood of the following three scenarios for the relationship between the movement and the state: • Violence in a disciplined rhythm; • Internal division with a long-term engagement in violence; • Détente and positive change after its huge losses.