Qatar’s Unilateral Policies: Political Risks Assessment of Doha’s Ambitions

 

This unprecedented crisis in the GCC history erupted on June 5, 2017 when Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt boycotted Qatar politically, diplomatically and economically in response to Doha’s policies that support and finance terrorism in violation of its commitments in the 2013 and 2014 Riyadh Agreements. The crisis has led to a regional polarization between Qatar, Turkey and Iran, on one side, and the Arab quartet and other countries, on the other. In addition, the crisis has become internationalized; major powers got involved whether as mediators or benefiters of the crisis. Now, it has been nearly 4 months since the start of the crisis with no prospects for a solution or settlement on the horizon.

This paper sheds light on the crisis with Qatar, to tackle the risks and consequences on the region in general and on the GCC in particular. It includes the most important ideas and views presented in the comments and discussions in the workshop held by EPC on 25 September 2017, with the participation of number of Gulf and Arab experts and politicians.

The paper provides a rational realistic analyses of the crisis and its impacts on both sides and the region, explores the options of the different parties in order to predict possible outcomes of the crisis. This is not an easy challenge given the uncertainty surrounding the crisis.

 
 

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