The Electoral System in the Upcoming Elections of Egypt’s House of Representatives: An Attempt to Foresee Effects
This paper includes an estimate for the most important rules that will govern the upcoming elections of the Egyptian House of Representatives. Those rules are included in the parliamentary elections law issued in June 2014. The paper tries to foresee the effects of this law on the electoral chances of candidates. It points out that implementing the individual system on 78% of the seats, reducing the size of the individual constituency, and the continued weakness of the organizational structures of secular parties will increase the chances of candidates of the National Democratic Party, leaders of prominent families and prominent merchants who are natural leaders at the constituency level. On the other hand, seats of lists will be a great opportunity for parties to nominate candidates with clear political orientations without being tied to local popularity in their constituencies. Within this context, the paper says that secular parties will also face difficulty after elections to control independent representatives, who are not affiliated with the party in the first place and have joined it to get financial support. The same thing does not apply on representatives elected through lists; it is expected that those representatives will form a more coherent ideological block. Finally, the paper introduces the potential tracks for the upcoming elections in Egypt.
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